5 Italians on court today, here's who advances and who doesn't
Five Italians in the Roland Garros second round, all on court Thursday May 28. The draw offers very different matchups: an outright favorite coming off a perfect M1000 season, a style derby against a South American lefty, a fragile return against an in-form home favorite, a Slam rematch against an inconsistent player, and an Argentine with an uncomfortable H2H but on the wrong surface. Below, a clear call for each and the variable to watch.
Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Chatrier, day session)
Advances: Sinner. The world number 1 arrives with five Masters 1000 won out of five in 2026 and a record streak of more than thirty consecutive wins on the M1000 circuit. Cerundolo is a solid lefty, built on the forehand diagonal and on a relatively modest first serve, but his profile is exactly the type Sinner devours: neutral rallies beyond four shots, down-the-line backhand to take away the diagonal, forehand acceleration on the short second serve.
H2H 1-0 Sinner (Wimbledon 2023, 6-2 6-2 6-2 in an hour and a half). It's their first meeting on clay, but the technical gap is too wide to hinge on the surface.
Variable to watch: the first set. If Cerundolo, as a lefty, manages to build the forehand diagonal on the forward return, he can steal 3-4 games. Beyond that scenario, there's no match.
Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu
Advances: Cobolli. The 10 seed has a solid record on clay in 2026 and already came through the derby with Pellegrino holding up well in the key moments (7-6 in the second). Wu is a fast-hardcourt player, heavy first serve and flat baseline game: on clay he loses his main edge, the quick point off the serve. In rallies beyond five shots, Cobolli has a mobility and backhand consistency that Wu, back to winning a Challenger in April in Sarasota, doesn't yet know how to handle on this surface.
Variable to watch: Wu's first serve percentage. Above 65%, the Chinese can make the first set long and tense. Below 60%, Cobolli attacks the second serve and closes in three.
Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur Rinderknech (Chatrier, night session)
Does not advance: Berrettini. It's the most painful call to write, but the numbers don't help. Berrettini is back from another physical layoff, has a fragile recent record, and won the first round against Fucsovics in a comeback, after losing the first set in the tie-break. Rinderknech is the 22 seed, has found consistency on clay in recent weeks, and plays in front of the home crowd in the Chatrier night session, the scenario that has been raising his level for years.
The matchup is also technically unfavorable. Both Berrettini and Rinderknech live off the first serve and Serve+1, but on clay the Italian's first serve loses depth and the driven backhand remains the most vulnerable shot. Rinderknech, 196 cm tall and with the inside-out forehand, attacks exactly that corner.
Variable to watch: three sets won by the Italian. If Berrettini holds up physically beyond two sets (and today that's a big if), the fifth is a coin flip on relative freshness. The real risk is closing in four.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Advances: Arnaldi. This is the least obvious pick of the bunch, but the one with the clearest technical rationale. Tsitsipas had a flash on clay in 2026 (round of 16 in Madrid, with two match points wasted against Ruud), but outside of that tournament he has never gotten past the second round on this surface all season. In the first round here in Paris he had what amounted to a walkover (Muller retired down 6-2 3-0), so he arrives without rhythm built across three full sets. Arnaldi on the other hand won the Cagliari Challenger and gets here with seven consecutive wins on clay, a very rare condition for a player at his level in Paris.
Tactically, Arnaldi can exploit the Greek's historic weak spot on clay: the return on the second serve. Tsitsipas remains vulnerable on points played off the second serve, and Arnaldi's two-handed backhand is the right tool to return deep and force the Greek to build from a standstill. The H2H reads 1-0 Tsitsipas (RG 2024, fourth round, 4 sets), but in that match Arnaldi won the first set: the tactical map works, what's missing is consistency over 3 sets.
Variable to watch: Tsitsipas's head between the second and third set. Historically it's the point at which he caves when his opponent gives him nothing.
Luciano Darderi vs Francisco Comesana (Court 6)
Advances: Darderi. The 14 seed is having the best clay season of his career and closed the first round against Ofner without dropping a set (7-6 in the first, then 6-2 6-3). Comesana is a classic Argentine clay player, heavy topspin and baseline grinder, and he's awkward: he had beaten Darderi at Cincinnati 2025, but via retirement by the Italian in the second set, and in any case on hard court, the opposite condition.
On clay the matchup flips. Darderi strikes flatter and deeper, has more forehand weight and an average first serve that's faster. Comesana can win a set or two by dragging long neutral rallies to the middle, but for three sets he needs to find a weapon that Darderi's forehand didn't see in the first round.
Variable to watch: Darderi's patience in rallies beyond eight shots. If he accepts to build instead of forcing, he closes in three. If he goes for the winner on the sixth shot to wrap it up early, he can lose a set on silly errors.
Summary
Four Italians into the third round, one out. Sinner, Cobolli, Arnaldi and Darderi advance. Berrettini goes out. The figure that sums up the day: three of the four favorable calls rest on the same variable, the quality of the return on the opponent's second serve. That's where the Italian count in Paris is decided today.
