And now? Who wins Roland Garros?
A few hours from the round of 16, the men's draw at Roland Garros 2026 has no living Slam champion. Carlos Alcaraz did not start due to a wrist injury, Jannik Sinner went out in the second round against Juan Manuel Cerundolo after a time-out for cramps, Novak Djokovic was eliminated in the third round by Joao Fonseca in five sets, 4-6, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 7-5. It is the first time in the Open Era that no former Slam champion reaches the fourth round at a major. The tournament is now a test of resilience across three variables: who holds serve under pressure, who manages heavy ball behind the baseline, who survives a fifth set without the muscle of the top three.
The nominal favorite is Alexander Zverev, but the tournament is more open than the odds suggest.
The dominant variable: holding serve in long third sets
Without Sinner and Alcaraz, no player in the draw wins short rallies with the regularity you usually see at the deep end of a Slam. That means sets are decided on serve and on pressure games, not on baseline accelerations. The metric that matters is the percentage of points won on second serve in decisive sets.
Zverev is the player best equipped on this front. In the first three rounds he conceded few break points and closed three wins out of three (6-3, 6-4, 6-2 against Bonzi; 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 against Machac; 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2 against Halys). His blueprint in Paris has not changed, first serve out wide on the deuce side and high kick second serve on the backhand diagonal, but on this surface and with these balls his margin on serve is what separates him from the other three left in his quarter of the draw. His historical limit in tight Slam-final moments remains, yet the round of 16 and the quarterfinals, statistically, are his ground.
The pivot of the draw: Zverev's quarter against Jodar
In the German's quarter is Rafael Jodar, 19 years old, world number 29 and 27th seed. He is co-leader of the tour for clay-court wins in 2026 at fifteen, tied with Etcheverry. Title in Marrakech, semifinal in Barcelona, quarterfinals in Madrid and Rome. He is not a summer surprise, he is an annualized data point.
Against Zverev, Jodar has the right profile to do damage. His first serve is not exceptional, but he has backhand depth in neutral rallies and the ability to stay glued to the baseline on high bounces. It is exactly the combination that has troubled Zverev in recent Slam finals, where the German struggles when the opponent does not gift him the easy first ball and forces him to build the point from zero.
The data point that defines the quarter is his return on second serve: Jodar builds heavily from there, rarely gifts the first ball to his opponent and keeps the backhand diagonal deep even on high kicks. For Zverev, whose blueprint depends on being able to play the +1 freely after the first serve, that is a variable that changes the game plan.
If Jodar reaches the quarterfinal, the favorite of that side of the draw stops being Zverev.
The other half: Ruud, Fonseca and the fifth-set risk
At the bottom of the draw, Casper Ruud already has two finals and a semifinal in Paris, but reached the round of 16 after saving two match points against Tommy Paul, coming back from two sets to zero, 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(4), 7-5. Four hours and forty-three minutes on his legs. It is not a detail: Ruud already has in his body a semifinal in Geneva (lost in two sets to Navone) and the Rome final, with a packed schedule across the whole European clay season. The price of always being there.
In the round of 16 he faces Fonseca, the least readable player in the draw. Nineteen years old, 28th seed, heavy first serve, inside-in forehand with an extreme grip and the ability to stay upright over five sets down two-to-love for the second time in a few days (comeback in the second round against Prizmic, then the one against Djokovic). Against the Serb he did not lower the level of his first serve in the fourth and fifth sets, closing the match with decisive service winners in the 7-5 game. That is the technical data that explains the upset: he did not give up the risk when his legs were inviting him to.
Ruud against Fonseca is the fork in the road of the tournament. If Ruud goes through, the Norwegian has an overall manageable draw to the final, with his tactical intelligence on clay making him the most complete player left on the bottom side. If Fonseca goes through, the entire branch opens up for a surprise finish.
The technical underdog: Auger-Aliassime in the top half
In the top half, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the fourth seed and, if he beats Nakashima in the third round tonight, he will be one of the very few left with deep Slam experience (two semifinals at the US Open, 2021 and 2025). This surface has never been his favorite, but the draw is offering it to him. His first serve, when it lands consistently, is the weapon that best replicates the trouble Sinner and Alcaraz would have caused here. He will not win the tournament for baseline fluidity, but he can win it on serve in sets where the others come up short.
The forecast, and the condition that breaks it
Clear favorite: Zverev. Slight edge over Ruud thanks to draw quality and serve numbers. Outsider with value: Jodar, if he meets Zverev in the quarterfinals and takes him to a fifth. Wildcard: Fonseca, if he gets past Ruud in the round of 16.
The condition that flips everything is just one, Jodar's backhand depth against Zverev's first serve. If the Spaniard can keep his return inside the court the way he did against Tien in Rome, winning 6-1, 6-4 in 1h14, Zverev risks ending his Paris run before the semifinal. In that case, the tournament is won by Ruud, or it is won by Fonseca. In both cases, the Slam will have a new name on the honor roll: whoever lifts the trophy next June 7 will be claiming their first career Slam title.
