Buse's US Open Draw: Two Open Rounds, Then Auger-Aliassime
Ignacio Buse enters Flushing Meadows as the No. 32 seed, the last spot assigned, after winning Winston-Salem by beating Arthur Fery 6-3, 6-2 in seventy-seven minutes. The draw is kind to him for the first two rounds, then presents the bill in the third, where he faces Félix Auger-Aliassime, a semifinalist here twelve months ago. The Peruvian's tournament will be decided in those three days, and the factor that weighs most is recovery.
Giron and Bonzi, two opponents already settled this year
The first round brings Marcos Giron, an American ranked around 80th, whose hard-court career record shows more losses than wins (94-103). They met in June at Queen's, and Buse won 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(8) after a tie-break closed 10-8. That match tells you two useful things: the Peruvian holds up in long rallies against a player who gets everything back, and he doesn't fall apart when the match tightens into the smallest margins.
The second round, if the draw holds, brings Benjamin Bonzi, expected to open against Alex Molčan. Buse beat him Friday in the Winston-Salem semifinal, 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, in one hour and fifty-one minutes. What matters from that match is entirely in the deciding set.
In the third set, Buse won all 12 points on his three service games.
Against a player who lives off deep returns and pressure on second serves, closing out twelve points out of twelve means the serve was working as an opening weapon, not just a way to start the point. That's why he goes in favored in both of the first two rounds.
Auger-Aliassime in the third round, and the calendar math
Here the draw shifts in weight. Auger-Aliassime is the No. 3 seed, has reached at least the quarterfinals in three of the last four Slams, and made the semifinal in New York in 2025. On American hard courts, over five sets, his first serve is a problem that a week of good form doesn't fix.
The real factor, though, is arithmetic. Buse played a full tournament in Winston-Salem, finished on Saturday, and takes the court in New York between August 30 and September 1. If he reaches the third round, he'll have two full weeks of matches in his legs, the last three best-of-five. The pattern that saved his semifinal against Bonzi, holding serve at no cost to stretch out the match, is exactly what degrades first when the first-serve percentage drops by five or six points. Against Auger-Aliassime, with that margin gone, service games stop being free.
Also worth watching is the Canadian's second round, against Karen Khachanov or Román Burruchaga. If Khachanov gets through, Buse's third round becomes a different match, slower and more physical, and on that ground the Peruvian has more to say.
The real ceiling of the draw
Beyond the third round the road stiffens quickly. In the round of 16, his section of the draw offers Learner Tien (14), Jakub Menšík (17), Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Gaël Monfils. In the quarterfinals comes the winner of the section between Flavio Cobolli (5) and Taylor Fritz (9). The semifinal would bring the quarter of Alexander Zverev, the No. 1 seed after Jannik Sinner withdrew with a right knee injury.
To lift the trophy he would need to beat Auger-Aliassime, a top-ten player, Zverev, and a finalist who emerged from the bottom half with Alcaraz and Djokovic. This isn't the week that happens.
The prediction, and what could prove it wrong
Buse is a clear favorite over Giron and a slight favorite over Bonzi. In the third round against Auger-Aliassime he goes in as the underdog, and the reasonable call is a third-round exit, with the round of 16 as a realistic ceiling. For a player who was No. 135 twelve months ago and is now heading toward his best ranking, around No. 30, that's already a leap.
Two things could prove this wrong. The first is Khachanov: if he eliminates Auger-Aliassime in the second round, Buse's ceiling rises by a full round. The second is recovery. If his first-serve percentage in the first round holds at Winston-Salem levels, the calendar hasn't taxed him yet and the read needs to be redone. But if he serves poorly against Giron and still wins in four sets, that win costs more than it's worth, and the third round is already decided.
