Paolini-Cirstea: the 3-0 head-to-head is the least useful number in the draw

Jasmine Paolini has beaten Sorana Cirstea three times out of three, most recently in Dubai in 2024 (6-2, 7-6). Bookmakers still make her the underdog, 2.43 to 1.55. The market isn't wrong: between that Dubai match and today's third round, the Romanian has built the best season of her career at thirty-six, while the only Italian left in the women's singles arrives at Flushing Meadows after fifty-three days without an official match. The variable that decides the match is Paolini's first step.

Fifty-three days out, and a game that lives on legs

Paolini hadn't played since July 8, when Marta Kostyuk eliminated her in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. She skipped the entire American hard-court swing to treat her left foot and entered the draw with a 15-13 season record, seeded 19th, with Marc Lopez back on the team.

The technical problem is specific. At 163 centimetres, Paolini's tennis works when she gets to the ball early: she takes the cross-court forehand early, cuts down her opponent's time, and turns a defensive position into a commanding shot in two steps. That whole chain starts from the feet, and the feet are the first thing you lose after almost eight weeks without a match.

The first round made it clear. Against Veronika Erjavec, ranked No. 106 and stuck at 0-5 in 2026, Paolini dropped the second set and closed it out 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 in one hour and forty-five minutes. At the microphone right after: "I was nervous, my legs were heavy. It was hard coming back." The all-Italian clash with Lucrezia Stefanini (6-4, 6-1, one hour and seventeen minutes) was cleaner, but a qualifier doesn't move you off the center of the court.

Cirstea hits on the rise, the worst way to attack Paolini

Cirstea is world No. 17, a ranking she reached on July 13, becoming the oldest player ever to break into the WTA top twenty for the first time, at thirty-six years and three months. In 2026 she reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, played the full American hard-court swing, and knows this tournament better than her track record suggests: in 2023, ranked No. 30, she reached the quarterfinals here by beating Rybakina and Bencic.

Her game is built on one thing: taking the ball on the rise and hitting it flat, straight back at the opponent, to take away time. Against Diane Parry in the second round she added the short cross-court backhand to pull her opponent off the court, closing it out 6-2, 7-5 without ever losing control of the rally.

That game plan counts double against Paolini. A flat, deep ball on fast hard courts kicks up high on the Italian's backhand and pushes her back; two metres behind the baseline, Paolini doesn't have the arm to reclaim the court, she has the legs. If the legs don't respond, the pattern repeats on every point.

Where Paolini can still win it

The return. Against Erjavec she broke serve seven times, and when she's in rhythm she sends the return deep down the middle, taking away the server's first strike. That's exactly the ball Cirstea doesn't want to see: at thirty-six her margin shrinks when she has to build the point from a standstill instead of closing it within three shots. The second set against Parry, with two match points wasted at 5-4, is a reminder of what happens when the Romanian has to play three shots more than planned.

The other detail working in the Italian's favor is the schedule. The match is on Stadium 17 as the first match of the day, not in the evening session under the lights at Ashe: small court, new balls, less time to think.

Cirstea starts as the favorite, and the odds have her in the right spot. The condition that flips the prediction is visible in the first four games: if Paolini can play inside the baseline and takes the first set at least to 4-4, the Romanian starts missing first, because her margin on every shot is razor-thin. If instead she's chasing the ball on the forehand diagonal as early as the third game, the match is over in an hour and twenty. Whoever advances faces, in the fourth round, the winner of Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez, scheduled for the same day. For Paolini it would be her second fourth round in New York after the one in 2024, and she'd get there with three matches in her legs instead of zero.