Paris 2026: the quarter-by-quarter analysis
Without Jannik Sinner, sidelined with a knee injury, the Rolex Paris Masters has two favorites in opposite halves: Alexander Zverev, the top seed and 2026 Roland Garros and US Open champion, and Carlos Alcaraz, the No. 2 seed. The variable that can reshuffle the rest of the draw is court speed. In 2025, the first year at the Paris La Défense Arena (now the Plenitude Arena), tournament director Cédric Pioline admitted he had slowed it down compared with Bercy 2024, and Alexander Bublik called it the slowest indoor hard court of his career. If the surface stays the same, it rewards players who build points from the return and defend well behind the baseline, and it takes something away from those who live off the serve and the first shot.
First quarter: Zverev, and a Djokovic who needs checking right away
Zverev won here in 2024 and enters with a bye. His first test is the winner of Lorenzo Musetti-Hubert Hurkacz. A heavy first serve and a two-handed backhand crosscourt: that is the game that has given him two Slams this year, one on clay and one on hard, and a slow court does not hurt it.
The sticking point is in the bottom section. Novak Djokovic, a seven-time champion in Paris, is the No. 10 seed, gets no bye and opens against Valentin Vacherot. In the 2025 Shanghai semifinal the Monegasque beat him 6-3, 6-4 with drop shots and long rallies, while Djokovic called for medical attention in both sets. Vacherot reached the semifinals in Basel by eliminating Rafael Jodar and Holger Rune. Djokovic went out in the round of 16 in Basel against Jan-Lennard Struff.
At 39, his problem is endurance. After Vacherot he could face Alex de Minaur in the round of 16, a semifinalist in Vienna who, on a slow court, stretches the rallies and keeps him running. Zverev is the clear favorite of the quarter.
Second quarter: Shelton and a serve that is worth less
This is the most open quarter. Ben Shelton (3) reached the US Open final, but in Basel he lost in the second round to Jerome Kym, ranked No. 222 in the world. His game plan is the lefty serve followed by the forehand, the serve+1. On a slow court the first serve loses pace after the bounce, more returns come back into play and Shelton has to win more points in baseline rallies.
The expected quarterfinal is against Frances Tiafoe (7), whom Shelton beat in the semifinals in New York. But Tiafoe went out in the first round in Vienna, and his section holds the most interesting first-round match of the tournament: Tommy Paul (12) against Rune. The Dane won Paris in 2022 and is returning from a ruptured Achilles tendon.
Shelton starts with a slight edge. Paul is the player to watch: he defends and counterattacks on the run, the quality a slow court pays off the most.
Third quarter: Medvedev's kind of court
Daniil Medvedev (4) is the player in best form in the draw. After the US Open he won Hangzhou and Almaty and reached the semifinals in Shanghai and Vienna. He returns from far behind the baseline and sends the ball back deep down the middle. On a slow indoor hard court, this is the most effective version of his game, the one that won him Paris in 2020.
The first serious opponent could show up in the round of 16: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (13), the Shanghai champion after his comeback against Jodar, 1-6, 7-6, 6-4. The Spaniard changes heights and uses the drop shot, which forces Medvedev to move forward, the movement he handles worst.
Flavio Cobolli (5) retired in Vienna against Matteo Berrettini, trailing 2-5, with a muscle problem. His indoor game (deep returns, defense, one more ball in the rally) runs through his legs. His possible round-of-16 opponent is none other than Jodar, a Shanghai finalist at 20. Medvedev is the favorite of the quarter.
Fourth quarter: Alcaraz against his Paris history
Alcaraz was out from April until the US Open with tenosynovitis in his right wrist, then won Tokyo and reached the semifinals in Vienna. Paris remains the Masters where he has done the least: in five appearances he has never gone past the quarterfinals.
He opens against the winner of Alex Michelsen-Jiri Lehecka. Lehecka lost the Tokyo final to him, 7-6, 6-4, and is in the semifinals in Basel: for a seed with a bye, that is a tough second round. In the round of 16 he could meet Berrettini, who opens against Brandon Nakashima (14) after reaching the quarterfinals in Vienna.
Arthur Fils (6), the Cincinnati champion, retired from the Basel quarterfinals with back pain. He lost to Taylor Fritz (11), who went on to reach the semifinals. If Fils is not at 100 percent, Fritz is the likeliest to meet Alcaraz in the quarterfinal.
Zverev and Alcaraz remain the two favorites, but the most evenly matched semifinal in the draw is the bottom one, Alcaraz against Medvedev: nobody else arrives with the same consistency and a game so well suited to a slow court. Shelton is the most exposed seed. The forecast falls apart if the Plenitude Arena plays faster than in 2025: in that case the big servers (Shelton, Fritz, Berrettini, Hurkacz) are back in the picture and Medvedev loses the time he needs on the return. Monday's first-round matches will show right away how slow the court is.
