Roland Garros: Who will reach the final?
With Jannik Sinner out in the second round against Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz withdrawing before the tournament with a wrist injury, the men's singles semifinals are Alexander Zverev against Jakub Mensik and the unprecedented all-Italian derby between Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi. The draw has produced four very different technical profiles, and the final will come down to how two variables combine: who keeps their first serve above a certain threshold, and who arrives on Saturday with their legs still intact. On both counts, Zverev starts ahead.
Zverev-Mensik: the long diagonal against the short rally
They already met a month ago in Madrid, on clay, and the numbers from that match remain the key to reading this one. Zverev won 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3 by taking the match where he wanted it: into the long rallies. He got the better of the baseline exchanges and kept Mensik closer to the line on the return, while he himself dropped back to extend the rally. It's the geometry that defines the two players: the Czech wants to finish early with power, the German wants to stretch the rally until he wins it by attrition.
On this surface, and on a Chatrier slower than hard courts, that one meter of difference in return position matters. At 20, Mensik has the shot to take time away from anyone, but in Paris the bounce hands him fewer free points than he finds in Miami, where in 2025 he beat Djokovic in the final.
Then there's the matter of hours on court. Mensik got here by coming through a four-hour-and-forty-one-minute battle with Navone, settled in a fifth-set tie-break. Zverev has lost just one set in the entire tournament, against Halys in the third round. With everything else equal, freshness belongs to the player who has navigated the draw without spending it.
The Italian derby: Cobolli's efficiency against Arnaldi's hours
Cobolli and Arnaldi have faced each other five times as professionals, all on clay, and counting the Challengers too the record reads 3-2 for Arnaldi. At ATP level, however, they are level at 1-1, and the most recent meeting, the one that matters most, went to Cobolli: at Roland Garros 2025 itself, in four sets. And the numbers from this tournament tell two opposite stories.
Cobolli has lost only two sets in five matches and has held very high first-serve points-won percentages throughout the draw. Above all, he has been more clinical at converting break points than Arnaldi. On clay, where breaks come and are handed back constantly, that greater efficiency in turning chances into points is the difference between closing out a set in one service game and having to fight back for it every time.
Arnaldi is the revelation of the tournament, ranked 104th and the lowest-ranked semifinalist since Dewulf in 1997. He got here by winning two five-set matches: just to reach the quarterfinals he piled up 17 hours and 42 minutes of play, the longest path to that round at a Slam since play times have been recorded (1991). It's a store of confidence, but it's also a physical debt. Against an opponent who finishes rallies sooner and serves better, tired legs are paid for in the final sets, exactly the ground where Arnaldi has had to push himself at length to get this far.
The prediction, and what could overturn it
The most likely final is Zverev against Cobolli. Zverev is the clear favorite for the tournament by virtue of his clay-court pedigree (43-10 in his career in Paris, finalist in 2024) and the technical edge he already showed against Mensik a month ago. Cobolli is the favorite in the derby for his efficiency on serve and in conversion, and because he arrives at the semifinal far fresher than Arnaldi.
There are two conditions that could overturn this, and they are concrete. The first is Zverev's head: in his worst moments the problem hasn't been the arm but managing his emotions on the big points, and Mensik is the kind of player who, if he gets into rhythm on his first serve, can turn a set into a tie-break lottery where experience counts for less. The second is the home-court factor of the derby: Arnaldi knows Cobolli well, has already beaten him on clay, and if the match slips to a fifth set it enters the territory he has already walked several times over these two weeks. If Cobolli doesn't close it out within four sets, the forecast reopens.
One to watch on Saturday: the first-serve percentage of the two favorites. Above 65%, Zverev and Cobolli take the final where they want it. Below 60%, here too, a favorite can go out.
