US Open: Alcaraz's draw is full of people who won't let him play tennis

Carlos Alcaraz is defending his New York title without having played an official singles match since last April. Tenosynovitis in his right wrist picked up in the first round at Barcelona, more than four months out, no Roland Garros, no Wimbledon, no Montreal, no Cincinnati. The only real court time he's had came Tuesday, August 25, in New York mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams, where according to AP's report he looked rusty. The draw added the rest: from the first round to the semifinal, his quarter is full of players who shorten the rally. For someone coming back with no matches in his legs, it's the worst possible sequence.

The right wrist hits exactly the repertoire that makes him Alcaraz

Tenosynovitis is an inflammation of the tendon sheath, not a structural injury. The distinction matters: the wrist holds up, the question is how much Alcaraz trusts loading it at full acceleration.

And for a right-hander, the right wrist is the engine behind two shots in particular. The first is the forehand, which in his case lives on wrist lag and the final whip: that's where the spin comes from, and it's the spin that gives him margin over the net to attack from impossible positions. The second is the drop shot, pure wrist touch, and in his tennis it's not a flourish but a tactical tool for opening up the court.

The two-handed backhand, where the left hand guides the shot, stays relatively protected. Players coming back from a wrist problem tend to flatten out the forehand: less spin, less margin, faster balls that land shorter. If that happens, the first sign won't be the winner count. It'll be the average depth in neutral rallies and how often he's willing to play the drop shot under pressure.

Who he draws, and why they're the wrong kind of opponent

In the first round is Roman Safiullin, these days far from his career-best ranking. There's a specific precedent: at Bercy in 2023 Safiullin beat Alcaraz 6-3, 6-4, and that time too the Spaniard was coming back from a layoff after withdrawing from Basel. Safiullin serves big and hits flat off the ground, which is exactly what it takes to deny rhythm to an opponent who still needs to find his own. In 2026 he's won two smaller titles, one of them beating Jaime Faria, who's one of two possible second-round opponents.

Then the quarter tightens up. In the third round it's Matteo Arnaldi, in the fourth round Tommy Paul or Alexander Bublik (No. 15), and in the quarterfinals the winner of the likely round of 16 between Ben Shelton (No. 8) and Arthur Fils (No. 10), the two players who arrived in New York with a summer Masters 1000 title in their pocket: Shelton defended his Canada title without dropping a set, Fils won Cincinnati by beating Tiafoe.

The thread connecting them is tactical before it's generational. Safiullin, Bublik, Shelton and Fils live off the serve and look to end the point within three shots. Against them the rally-length distribution collapses toward the short end, and a short rally doesn't give you your timing back. Timing gets rebuilt in long exchanges, when you can miss twice and correct on the third. Here Alcaraz will get few rallies to find his forehand, and he'll get almost all of them on return.

The prediction, and what would prove it wrong

The moment of maximum risk arrives earlier than the seeding suggests. The first three rounds are the stage where the opponent's level is low enough that a loss wouldn't be justified, while his own tennis is still a work in progress. Before the injury, Alcaraz's 2026 read 22 wins and 3 losses with the Australian Open in the trophy case, and that player starts this half of the draw ahead of everyone. The question is how many days he needs to become that player again.

With Jannik Sinner missing and Alexander Zverev on the other side, the bottom half is wide open and Alcaraz remains the strongest name it contains, with a likely semifinal against Novak Djokovic as the final hurdle. Even so, we don't make him the favorite for the title, and not a clear favorite for the quarterfinals either: players coming back from more than four months out against opponents who take away rhythm lose more often than the odds say. We'd think on a loss before the semifinal.

The condition that would prove all this wrong is measurable as early as the first rounds. If he gets through the first three rounds in straight sets, with high first-serve percentages and without having to force the forehand to close out points, then the wrist isn't an issue and the rhythm comes back on its own. If instead he grinds out a fifth set against Safiullin or Arnaldi, the fourth round against Bublik or Paul becomes the terminus.