US Open, Musetti's path: three tune-up rounds, then the bill

Lorenzo Musetti arrives in New York as the thirteenth seed, seven months after retiring in the Australian Open quarter-finals against Novak Djokovic. He was leading 6-4, 6-3 and stopped at 1-3 down in the third with a right thigh injury. In that January tournament, ranked world No. 5, he had beaten Tomas Machac and Taylor Fritz. From there the season split in two: the March return at Indian Wells, then the rectus femoris injury picked up in Rome, which cost him Roland Garros and Wimbledon, and the restart in Washington at the end of July. The draw gives him three rounds to get his serve and legs back in sync, and from the fourth round on it asks him for exactly that.

Fery, Moutet, Darderi: three matches worth more than the ranking

In the first round it's Arthur Fery, a Wimbledon semifinalist in July starting as world No. 114 and a wildcard, with Flavio Cobolli eliminated in the quarter-finals and his run ended by Zverev. From there Fery climbed to No. 36. The two have never met. Here context matters more than the level of the opponent: Musetti plays his first Slam match since January against a player with nothing to defend in New York.

The second round points to Corentin Moutet or wildcard Dane Sweeny. Musetti leads 3-0 against the Frenchman, who remains the worst possible opponent for anyone looking for rhythm: left-handed, constant changes of height and length, drop shots, no two rallies alike. These are the two rounds where first-serve percentage and average service-game length matter most.

In the third round, the derby with Luciano Darderi, the 21st seed, against whom he leads 3-0. On the hard courts of Flushing Meadows, Darderi's heavy topspin bounces lower and more predictably than on clay, and Musetti's one-handed backhand handles it from a comfortable height.

Zverev in the round of 16: the style helps, the head-to-head doesn't

With Jannik Sinner out with a right knee injury, Alexander Zverev is the No. 1 seed and the fourth-round obstacle. The head-to-head reads Musetti 3-2, 1-1 on hard courts. Their last meeting, though, was the Vienna 2025 semifinal, won by Zverev 6-4, 7-5.

Technically it's also the matchup that resembles him most. Zverev and Musetti both build points with a high ball and the backhand diagonal, and their rallies stretch out until one of them agrees to change direction first. On this surface that moment comes sooner, and it almost always runs through the forehand: under pressure, that's where Zverev leaves the most fragile shot in his repertoire.

Then there's the format. Best-of-five rewards whoever holds their level past the hour-and-a-half mark, and that's exactly what Musetti has lacked since coming back.

In the quarters, summer's open tab

In the bottom half of the quarter, Alex de Minaur, No. 6, and Rafael Jodar, No. 12, play for the spot in the quarter-finals. For Musetti the two names don't carry equal weight. Jodar has beaten him twice in one week: the Washington quarter-finals 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, the Montreal third round 6-4, 6-3.

The first of those two scorelines contains the diagnosis. Musetti won the opening set 6-1 and then collected five games across the next two. At Cincinnati the same curve took a different shape: an even first set lost in a tie-break 7-2 against Frances Tiafoe, the second closed out 7-5 by the American on his fourth match point, two hours and seventeen minutes total.

His tennis right now lives at seeding-level quality for forty or fifty minutes, then the second serve shortens and his service games run longer. Jodar returns from inside the baseline and gives no breathing room: against him that window closes even sooner.

Up to Darderi, Musetti starts favorite in every match, and the fourth round remains this tournament's realistic ceiling. Against Zverev he has a style that suits him and a head-to-head lead overall, so it's not a match lost before it starts, but it's still a five-setter against the No. 1 seed asked of a player who in the past month has lost twice to Jodar and once to Tiafoe. In the quarter-finals, with Jodar across the net, we'd have him as the underdog. Against de Minaur it would be an open match.

The condition that overturns all of this is measurable within the first week already. If he gets past Fery and the second round in three sets while staying under two hours, and if the derby with Darderi doesn't go to a fifth, then the thigh is holding up to the long format and the head-to-head with Zverev really counts. But if he drops a set to Fery, or finds himself serving to stay in the match against Darderi, the round of 16 is already written.