Bellucci-Atmane: who holds serve in Almaty?
Mattia Bellucci starts with a slight edge in the second round of the Almaty ATP 250 against Terence Atmane. The margin comes from form: the Italian has just won the Jinan Challenger after the Jingshan final, while the Frenchman's season has taken him from No. 41 in April to the edge of the top 100. Atmane, though, has the heavier serve of the two, and on the indoor hard courts of Almaty it is the shot that can drag the match into tie-breaks.
Two lefties, and the pattern from the left side goes dead
Both are left-handed with a two-handed backhand, and that is the tactical detail that matters most. Against a righty, a lefty builds on the wide first slice in the ad court, which opens up the court onto the opponent's backhand. Against another lefty, that ball lands on the forehand. Both have to give up their most profitable pattern and look for the first serve at the body or down the middle.
The player with more margin on serve suffers less. Atmane stands 193cm, Bellucci 175cm. Against Rinky Hijikata the Frenchman won 7-6, 6-2 with 9 aces and without losing his serve.
Bellucci got past Tomás Martín Etcheverry, the sixth seed, in three sets with 15 aces: 7-6 in the first, 6-4 in the third. He finished ten points behind the Argentine and still beat him: a first-set tie-break and a single break, converted from six break points.
The net as Bellucci's way out
Bellucci has a resource Atmane lacks: he shortens the point by moving forward. On a fast court his flat backhand stays low, and against a 193cm player a low ball forces him to bend down to hit the passing shot.
The exposed spot is the second serve. If Atmane returns deep on that ball, the Italian's service games turn into long ones.
The previous meeting and physical durability
They have already met in the second round of 2025 Australian Open qualifying: Atmane won 7-6, 6-4, with 10 aces to 4. Back then, too, serve made the difference.
Physically, the two arrive from opposite directions. Bellucci comes off three weeks with hardly a break: a Jingshan Challenger final lost in a third-set tie-break to Lloyd Harris, qualifying and a first round in Shanghai, the Jinan Challenger title, then Etcheverry. Atmane, by contrast, arrives after two retirements in a week. On September 30 in Jingshan he left the court against Elias Ymer at 5-5 in the third set. A few days later, in Shanghai qualifying against Bernard Tomic, he hurled his racquet toward the stands and retired down 3-5 in the third. He then apologized on Instagram, spoke of health problems and wrote that he wanted to start again from zero.
Bellucci remains the favorite, narrowly, because he has the form, because he has the net as an alternative to rallying, and because a long third set works against Atmane. The prediction falls apart if the Frenchman repeats the serving he showed against Hijikata: without breaks the match goes to tie-breaks, and there a 193cm first serve outweighs Bellucci's variety. The second condition concerns the Italian's legs. Four tournaments in three weeks can present the bill in exactly the third set that, on paper, should favor him.
