Bellucci-Fritz: the slice on the ad side is the Italian's lever

Taylor Fritz is a clear favorite against Mattia Bellucci in the second round, and the margin comes almost entirely from the American's serve, one of the hardest service games to break on hard courts. Bellucci has only one way to stay in the match: hold his own serve at almost no cost and cash in on the two or three break points he'll see over the whole match.

Counting the break points

Fritz rarely loses serve on hard courts, and Bellucci isn't a player who breaks often on return. Best of five, with the American serving twenty times or so, the realistic count is one break, maybe two, almost certainly not three.

That changes the meaning of the match for the Italian. This isn't a return contest and it can't become one. Every return game is free material: pushing down the opponent's first-serve percentage is the only goal, and the rest is patience.

Fritz also arrives in a stretch where his serve is holding up. In New York he opened by beating Darwin Blanch 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, and in August he won the title in Washington.

The slice on the ad side, and Fritz's deep return position

Bellucci's technical lever is his left hand. His wide *slice* on the ad side curves away from Fritz's two-handed backhand, and the points that matter most (break points, 30-40, points after an error) get played right there.

The detail that makes it exploitable is the American's positioning. Bellucci described it himself after the first round:

"He moves early, he can also play pretty far behind the baseline, sometimes he backs up on the return and he's someone who makes you hit a lot of balls."

Backing up buys time, but it lengthens the lateral distance on a ball that pulls wide: against a lefty, every step back costs an extra half-step of running toward the outside. If Bellucci opens up the court there, the first shot after the serve is his for the taking.

The problem is how often he'll be able to use it, and that depends on his first-serve percentage. The potential is there: in Winston-Salem, against Martin Landaluce, Bellucci closed out the match with ten aces, winning 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-1. The point is holding that level of serve for three sets, not one.

What Stuttgart said, and what changes on hard courts

They already met in June, quarterfinals in Stuttgart: Fritz won 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 in two hours and twenty-five minutes, and afterward he admitted that in the first two sets Bellucci had barely given him any chances.

That match, though, was played on grass, where rallies end quickly and the Italian's variety (low slice, changes of pace, forays to the net) has an immediate effect. At Flushing Meadows the ball bounces higher and stays in play longer. From the baseline, in a neutral rally, Fritz's forehand from a central position is the shot that decides points, and the Italian doesn't have the same weight to counter it.

Then there's the distance. In Stuttgart Bellucci sustained that level for two and a half sets. Here he needs three won sets, and in New York he has just picked up his first Slam win of the year, 6-4, 6-2, 6-0 over Zsombor Piros.

The prediction, and the condition that overturns it

Fritz in three or four sets. World No. 10 against world No. 95 on a surface that favors the former isn't a scenario that calls for much imagination.

The condition that flips the forecast is measurable in real time: if Bellucci stays above 70% first serves in over the first two sets and takes at least one to a tie-break, the match stretches out and the variable becomes Fritz's stamina, who lost in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati in the second half of August to Brandon Nakashima. Below that serving threshold, the Italian won't have enough ammunition to reach a fifth set.