Berrettini against Davidovich Fokina: how he shortened the rallies

Matteo Berrettini beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4 in two hours and twenty-one minutes, and he won two points fewer than his opponent: 92 to 94. That count says something precise: the Spaniard played the better tennis, Berrettini chose better where to spend it. From the second set on, Berrettini moved the centre of gravity of the match back onto his own service games, and there he gave away almost nothing.

The first set went the way it had to go

Thirty minutes, 1-6, and a baseline rally count of 18-7 for the Spaniard. Davidovich Fokina opened up the court with the down-the-line forehand every time Berrettini tried to hold the diagonal, and he took away from the Italian the shot the rest of his tennis is built on, the forehand off the short return.

The number that weighs more than the score is on the second serve. Davidovich won 71% of the points behind his second ball, Berrettini 29%. With a gap like that you don't play a set, you wait for it to end.

It should be read for what it was: Berrettini's first official set since September 2, after four weeks without a match. Timing doesn't arrive by decision.

The deep return position, and the 16 aces that came out of it

The adjustment that changed the match isn't Berrettini's. Davidovich returns from well behind the baseline on the Italian's second serve, a position that makes sense against a heavy server but that hands the opponent the time to meet the next ball already moving forward. Berrettini took that time and used all of it: service games closed out quickly, with no need to construct.

He finished with 16 aces and a single double fault, 70% of first serves in, 69% of points won behind the first and 59% behind the second. With those numbers on the first ball, the service game becomes a formality even against an opponent at this level.

The second set goes to a tie-break, and there Berrettini closes it out 7-1. In the third set the pattern is cleaner: a break to open, then a double break, one break back from the Spaniard, and nothing else until 6-4.

The point count explains the comeback better than the score

Total points: 94 Davidovich Fokina, 92 Berrettini.

The Spaniard's 94 are badly distributed: a sizeable chunk comes from the thirty minutes of the first set, when every rally stretched out. Berrettini's 92 are concentrated in the moments where the score weighs, tie-break and opening return games. It's the typical profile of a win built on serve, and it explains why a match that looked finely balanced ended with only one contestable set out of three.

For the rest of the Asian swing, Berrettini's margin is measurable in one line: as long as the first ball holds these percentages and the point dies early, he holds his ground even against opponents ranked ahead of him, like the Spaniard. When the rally stretches, the count starts to look like the first set's again. Against Vallejo in the round of 16 the question isn't the level, it's how many long rallies he manages to refuse.