Jodar-Davidovich Fokina: Who Lifts the Shanghai Trophy?
Rafael Jodar and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina meet for the Shanghai Masters 1000 title in the first all-Spanish Masters 1000 final since Monte-Carlo 2017. Jodar starts with a slight edge, because his flat, early-hitting game is what this year's court rewards most. Davidovich arrives off a comeback win over Zverev in the semifinal and has more variety to break the rhythm.
A fast court for early hitters
According to Tennis TV data cited by Punto de Break, the Shanghai 2026 Court Pace Index is 42.2: ten points above 2025 and the highest since 2017. At this speed the ball stays low and timing at impact matters more than spin.
Jodar, twenty years old and 1.91 m tall, plays exactly that way. He beat Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 6-4 in one hour and forty-four minutes. The shot that cracks open the rallies is the forehand.
The most useful stat, though, concerns first sets. Before Medvedev, Jodar had lost the first set in all four of his matches at the tournament, against Tirante, Lehecka, van de Zandschulp and Casper Ruud, and he came back every time. In the semifinal he won the first set for the first time all week.
Davidovich also starts slowly: he dropped the first set against Hurkacz and against Zverev. In the final, whoever gets the measure of the court first won't have to come from behind.
Davidovich and the tie-break count
Against Alexander Zverev, the top seed, Davidovich won 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
In the earlier rounds he had to get out of trouble several times. Against Frances Tiafoe he saved six break points in the third set, including a 0-40 at 3-3, and a match point in the tie-break. Against Hubert Hurkacz he lost the first set 6-1, then won the deciding tie-break 8-6. In the quarterfinal Arthur Gea retired after 22 minutes.
Against Tiafoe and Hurkacz he played three tie-breaks and won them all. Davidovich comes in on nine straight wins in China, across Chengdu and Shanghai.
Who decides the length of the rally
Jodar wants to finish the point in the first few shots, with the driving forehand and the two-handed backhand that switches down the line. Davidovich has more ways to break the rhythm: the drop shot, the slice, the forays to the net.
On a court with a CPI of 42, those options come at a cost. The slice stays low but arrives quickly, and an early hitter can attack it before the rally slows down. The drop shot is the one that can move Jodar, because it pulls him off the baseline he controls from and forces him to run forward.
Jodar starts with a slight edge for a technical reason: on this court the flat, early ball takes away Davidovich's time to build points with variety. Anyone looking only at the rankings, however, underestimates Davidovich: nine consecutive wins and the top seed beaten from behind in the semifinal. The prediction breaks down if Davidovich keeps his first-serve percentages high. Then the service games get quick on both sides, the match heads toward tie-breaks, and against Tiafoe Davidovich won one by saving a match point.
