Musetti-Kouamé: who goes through in Lyon?

Lorenzo Musetti is the favorite at the Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes against Moïse Kouamé, a 17-year-old French wild card ranked No. 194 in the world. His edge is on return. Kouamé has a first serve that has held every service game in Lyon and a second serve that has already cracked under pressure. If Musetti plays plenty of points against the second serve, the match goes his way. If Kouamé gets the first serve in, it heads to tie-breaks.

A first serve that has given nothing away

In the first round Kouamé beat Lorenzo Sonego 7-6, 6-4 without losing his serve, saving all five break points he faced. The first set was decided in a tie-break, 7-2 for the Frenchman.

Kouamé stands 1.91 m tall, plays a two-handed backhand and builds his game on power. On the hard court in Lyon, the first serve shortens the points and immediately hands him the shot he dominates with.

The weak point sits behind the first serve. In the third round at Roland Garros, in a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 loss to Alejandro Tabilo, he hit 11 double faults and won 46% of his second-serve points. That number shows where to apply pressure.

Musetti's slice against a tall player

Musetti has the tools to get into those service games. With his one-handed backhand he can return with the slice and keep the ball low, and on hard courts the slice bounces very little. For a player who is 1.91 m tall, that means bending on every shot and building from down low, away from the hip-high ball where he sets his power.

His recent problem is conversion. In Shanghai he lost 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 to Zhou Yi, world No. 277, without being broken: in the third set he had three consecutive break points and converted none.

Against a server who has not yet dropped a service game in Lyon, every missed break point moves the match closer to a tie-break. And that is where the prediction evens out.

The physical side, the variable the seed hides

The seeding masks a season with four injuries: a muscle problem in Australia, the right arm in Miami, the rectus femoris in Rome (which cost him Roland Garros and Wimbledon), and a fractured right ring finger suffered in training in Tokyo. At the US Open he lost in the second round to Dane Sweeny. Monday's win over Matteo Arnaldi, 6-1, 6-4, is his first since September 1.

Anyone who looks only at the seed overrates Musetti. Anyone who looks only at age underrates Kouamé, who beat Sonego in Lyon without being broken.

Musetti remains the favorite because the slice return on the second serve is the most direct way into a service game that has held everything so far, and because that second serve cracked in Paris. The prediction falls apart if Kouamé keeps his first-serve percentage high and takes the match to tie-breaks: in Shanghai Musetti lost both of his, and Kouamé won his 7-2 in Lyon. The second condition is physical. If it goes to a long third set, Musetti's season will weigh more than his backhand.