Prediction of the day: the three Wimbledon fourth-round matches that decide your extra points
Today, Monday July 6, the AceCream app puts extra points up for grabs on the three Wimbledon fourth-round matches that carry the most weight: De Minaur-Cobolli, Fritz-Bublik, Lehecka-Zverev. These are the predictions of the day, the ones you can vote on in the app to earn points. This isn't a gut-feeling forecast: for each one there's the technical variable that tilts the match and the condition that, if it flips, overturns the call. The full rules are on ace-cream.com.
The first matchup is interesting for what the crowd says versus what the analysis says. On the opening match the app's audience goes against the models. Let's see why.
De Minaur-Cobolli: the crowd backs the Roman, the grass says otherwise
The in-app votes say Cobolli 69%, De Minaur 31%. It's a bet on momentum: Flavio Cobolli comes off the Roland Garros final and a huge heart, with a five-set comeback over Khachanov (0-6, 7-6, 6-7, 6-2, 6-2) in the third round. But that comeback is also the problem, not just the credit: four hours on court to reach the fourth round, against an opponent who has dropped very few sets.
On grass the numbers tell a different story. Alex de Minaur has a career record of 57-26 on the surface, and this season he has already reached the final in 's-Hertogenbosch and the quarterfinals at Queen's. Cobolli has very few grass matches in his legs, and his aggressive baseline game, built on clay, finds low bounces and shorter rallies here. The technical key is the return: De Minaur is one of the best returners on tour, and on a surface where serve is king, his ability to put opponents' second serves back in play shifts the balance of neutral rallies.
The head-to-head reads 2-0 De Minaur (Australian Open 2024 and Vienna indoors), but none on grass: this is their first meeting on the surface. The models give the Australian around 80%.
Clear favorite: De Minaur. The condition that would disprove the call is physical and mental at once: if Cobolli keeps the first two sets tight and drags them to a tie-break, the fatigue factor cancels out and the Paris final becomes a weapon of confidence. In that case the crowd's 69% could be right against the models.
Fritz-Bublik: two big serves, the match decided in the tie-break
Here the crowd is split almost down the middle: Fritz 52%, Bublik 48%. It makes sense, because it's the most balanced of the three. The overall head-to-head is 4-4, but Taylor Fritz has won four of the last five, including a meeting on grass this season.
Fritz arrives flying on grass: he reached the Stuttgart and Halle finals this season and has the Wimbledon 2025 semifinal in his legs. Alexander Bublik got past Tiafoe in a very tight five-setter with 48 aces, a figure that captures exactly how he'll play this match.
The technical profile is almost a mirror: two dominant serves, two returns that remain the weak link. On grass that means one thing only, few breaks and many tie-breaks. In grass Elo they're both near the top of the rankings, with Fritz a step above Bublik: a thin margin. When two big servers cancel each other out on serve, the match is decided on the few points where one of them takes over on return, and there Fritz is slightly more solid and more consistent.
Slight edge: Fritz. The condition that would disprove it is the pure variance of the tie-break: Bublik is capable of stringing together three short sets firing aces in bursts, and if his first-serve percentage stays above 70% for two hours, no surface data stops him. It's the match where voting in the app pays off most, because it really is a coin flip tilted only slightly.
Lehecka-Zverev: the step up in class against the Paris champion
For this match we don't have the in-app vote percentage, so we rely on the analysis alone. Alexander Zverev, the 2026 Roland Garros champion, has lost only one set in three rounds and reached the fourth round with a full tank. Jiri Lehecka, a Queen's finalist in 2025, moves well on grass, even if his build-up this year has been murkier.
The weighing point is something else: against the top 10 Lehecka's record stays clearly negative, and that's exactly the step up in class being asked of him today. On grass Zverev is among the top in Elo, ahead of the Czech, and the head-to-head is 1-1. The German starts with the more reliable serve in the hot moments and with freshness on his side.
Favorite: Zverev. The condition that opens up the match is Lehecka's baseline rhythm: when he takes control of the rally with the forehand and steps in early, he's one of the few who can rob Zverev of time and push him behind the line. If he finds that depth consistently from the first set, the call reopens and the match goes the distance.
Vote the predictions and grab the points
These three matches are the predictions of the day on AceCream. Open the app, vote for the winner and take home the extra points: on the first match you also get the added challenge of siding with the analysis (De Minaur) or the crowd (Cobolli, at 69%). Rules and details on ace-cream.com.
