Race to Turin: who will qualify?
With Jannik Sinner out for the rest of 2026 with a knee injury, anyone who finishes the Race inside the top nine gets into the ATP Finals in Turin (15-22 November). Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton have already qualified. For the other five places, the standings after Shanghai read Flavio Cobolli 3,540 points, Daniil Medvedev 3,420, Frances Tiafoe 3,380, Arthur Fils 3,325, Rafael Jodar 3,159. De Minaur (2,880) and Djokovic (2,840) are chasing behind. Before Paris, scheduling decisions will settle the race, and for three of the five the most dangerous week is Vienna.
The calendar: where the points are between now and Stockholm
This week there are three indoor ATP 250s, in Lyon, Almaty and Brussels, with 250 points for the champion. From 26 October to 1 November it is the turn of the two 500s, Vienna and Basel. Then comes the Paris Masters 1000 (2-8 November, 1,000 points to the winner, 400 to a semifinalist) and, from 8 to 14 November, the Stockholm 250. All of it is on indoor hard courts, with no wind and no sun: the bounce is true, and the player who holds serve consistently starts ahead.
This week Cobolli, Medvedev and Fils can move the standings. Cobolli is the top seed in Lyon, where he took Tiafoe's place after Tiafoe withdrew with a leg problem, and he starts directly in the round of 16. Medvedev is the top seed and defending champion in Almaty. Fils plays in Brussels, where he has a first-round bye.
Jodar will play in Basel.
Vienna and Basel, the two draws that eat up points
The Vienna 500 has six top-10 players entered: Zverev, Alcaraz, Medvedev, Cobolli, de Minaur and Tiafoe. Four of them are in the race for Turin. With Zverev and Alcaraz in the same draw, at least two of the four risk knocking each other out or losing to one of the two who have already qualified. A first-round loss is worth zero points.
Basel, in the same week, puts Jodar in front of the most dangerous hunter. Novak Djokovic has received a wild card and returns to the Swiss Indoors for the first time since 2011, with Shelton also entered. The sum is simple: a final in Basel is worth 330 points and would take Djokovic to 3,170, above Jodar's current total.
Medvedev has the right profile, Jodar has a body to manage
Of the five, Medvedev is the only one who has already won on indoor hard courts at the highest level: Paris-Bercy and the ATP Finals in 2020, Vienna in 2022. In Shanghai he beat Tsitsipas and Paul and reached the semifinal. His return, played well behind the baseline, and the crosscourt backhand used as a containing shot pay off more when the bounce holds no surprises.
In that semifinal, though, Jodar beat him in two sets. The figure that weighs on the Spaniard's race comes from the next day. In the final against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina he led 6-1 and 3-2 in the second set, lost the tie-break 7-5 and needed the physio in the third for trouble with his thighs. Jodar is 20, and Basel starts eight days after that final.
Tiafoe has the most fragile position. He is seventh, but he has already skipped Lyon because of his leg, and if he does not play before Paris he would arrive there with the same 3,380 points he has today.
Medvedev and Cobolli start as favourites for two of the five places: they hold margins of 540 and 660 points over de Minaur, the first man out, both play in each of the two weeks before Paris, and Medvedev has the strongest indoor record of the group. Fils starts slightly ahead of Jodar: he has 166 more points and plays at home in Paris. Tiafoe is the most exposed. The forecast breaks down in two cases: if Djokovic reaches the final in Basel and Jodar loses early, ninth place changes hands before Paris; if Tiafoe misses Vienna, his spot opens up for de Minaur.
