Ruud-Jodar: who goes through to the semifinals?
Casper Ruud and Rafael Jodar meet in the Shanghai quarterfinal on a court that rewards players who hit early. Jodar is the favorite because his flat, early-taking game is built for these conditions. Ruud has fresh legs and a serve that is giving him free points this week.
A 42 CPI court against the heavy topspin forehand
According to Punto de Break's analysis of Tennis TV data, the Court Pace Index for Shanghai 2026 is 42.2: ten points above 2025 and the highest value since 2017.
Ruud builds the point with a heavy topspin forehand, hit well behind the baseline when he has time to get around to his left side. On a fast court, that time shrinks. The ball arrives lower and faster, and the move to the left for the inside-out forehand becomes a gamble.
Jodar, who stands 1.91 m, hits flat and early, with a two-handed backhand that goes down the line with no visible preparation. Against Jiri Lehecka he finished with 24 winners and 20 unforced errors, the numbers of a player who accepts the risk because the court pays him back.
Ruud's weak side remains the backhand. If Jodar finds it with the down-the-line backhand off the left-hand diagonal, the Norwegian has to defend on the run with his backhand, the shot that suffers most on a fast court.
Ruud's serve and Jodar's slow starts
The other half of the match favors Ruud. After Bu Yunchaokete, in the second round he beat Learner Tien 6-4, 7-6, serving 13 aces against the American. In the round of 16, Felix Auger-Aliassime retired with a knee problem at 5-2 for Ruud in the first set. Very little time on court. Ruud had never reached the quarterfinals in Shanghai before. Now he has reached them at all nine Masters 1000 tournaments.
Jodar comes from the opposite path. He lost the first set in all three matches, against Thiago Agustin Tirante, against Lehecka and against Botic van de Zandschulp, whom he beat 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 in two and a half hours. Each time he came back. Against Lehecka he got the decisive break at 4-4 in the third set by attacking second serves.
Three straight comebacks also say something else, though: in the opening games Jodar struggles to find the measure of the court. Against opponents who gave him break points, that was enough. Against a player who holds serve with aces, a set down costs more.
Jodar is in his first full season on tour.
Two weeks ago in Tokyo, after the trip from the Laver Cup in London, he lost 6-1, 6-3 to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, who came through qualifying. The three wins in Shanghai place that collapse in travel fatigue. The forehand and backhand are back to what they were in the summer, when he reached the semifinal in Montreal.
Jodar starts with a slight edge, for a technical reason: on this court the flat, early shot takes away Ruud's time to get around onto the forehand, and the down-the-line backhand targets his weak side. The edge stays slight because of two factors: Ruud's freshness and the Spaniard's slow starts. The prediction falls apart if Ruud wins the first set serving the way he did against Tien. At that point Jodar would have to come back for the fourth time in four matches.
