Rybakina Four Points Away: The World Number 1 Survives Toronto

Aryna Sabalenka lost Saturday in the round of 16 at the National Bank Open to Ekaterina Alexandrova 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4, and her score froze at 8,670. Elena Rybakina, stuck at 7,786, kept playing: 884 points behind with three matches still to go.

The Toronto title is worth 1,000 points, but part of that haul is already factored into the live rankings. Even with the trophy, Rybakina would still finish second, four points short.

The paradox is that the Kazakh arrives at this chance having already lost ground. Sabalenka had nothing to defend in Canada, having skipped the 2025 edition; Rybakina, on the other hand, gave up the 390 points from last year's semifinal, and the Belarusian's lead grew from 494 to 884 points before a single game was played. Sabalenka has led the rankings without interruption since October 2024. No Kazakh player has ever reached number one.

On Sunday, Rybakina beat Liudmila Samsonova 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in two hours and forty-nine minutes, coming back from two breaks down in the third set. On Tuesday night on Centre Court she faces Naomi Osaka, whom she has never met in an official match.

Asked about the chase for number one, she said she tries not to think about the rankings or the points and to take it one match at a time. In January, she had beaten Sabalenka in the Australian Open final, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.