Bellucci-Sonego in Paris: the lefty against the backhand
In the first round of the Rolex Paris Masters, two Italian qualifiers play for a place in the second round. Mattia Bellucci starts as a slight favorite over Lorenzo Sonego for a geometric reason: the lefty sends his forehand crosscourt and his serve out wide into Sonego's two-handed backhand, the least dangerous shot the Turin player owns. If the court stays slow, as it was in 2025, Sonego will have fewer free points on serve to make up for it.
The diagonal Sonego won't choose
Against a righty, Sonego's shot for taking control is the inside-out forehand. Against Bellucci, that shot lands on his opponent's forehand, the most comfortable spot in his game. To move the rally onto the lefty's backhand, Sonego has to hit the forehand down the line, which has less margin over the net and leaves the court open if it isn't deep.
Bellucci has the opposite problem. His crosscourt forehand, the natural shot, goes straight to Sonego's backhand. The same goes for his first slice serve on the ad side, which swings wide and pulls the righty off the court to return with his backhand. They met in April on the clay of the Cagliari Challenger: 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 for Bellucci.
Sonego has a precise tactical answer. On the deuce side, his first serve out wide goes to Bellucci's backhand, and from there he can attack the net early. In the last round of qualifying he beat Daniel Vallejo 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(5). Against Bellucci the plan is short points, finished by the third shot, before the lefty finds the diagonal.
A slow court takes away from the server
In 2025 the tournament moved to the La Défense arena, and the organizers deliberately slowed the surface. The court speed rating (Court Pace Index) was 35.1 in 2025 according to Tennis TV data, more than ten points below Bercy 2024.
On a court like that, Bellucci has more time to get to Sonego's first serve, and his passing shot has more time against a player coming to the net. Sonego's serve is still a weapon, but it pays less than it would on fast indoor hard.
Bellucci has also already shown he can win as a qualifier indoors. At Rotterdam 2025 he came through qualifying, beat Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, and reached the first ATP semifinal of his career.
Legs after qualifying
Bellucci reached the main draw without dropping a set: 6-1, 7-6(3) over Pablo Carreño Busta, then 6-4, 6-4 over Thiago Tirante. Sonego played two three-setters, against Jaume Munar (6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4) and Vallejo, the latter settled in a third-set tie-break.
Bellucci is the favorite, but only just. His edge comes from the lefty diagonal and from a court that cuts down on free points on serve, and the Cagliari result shows the match can still turn on a handful of games. The prediction falls apart if Sonego lands plenty of first serves and gets to the net by the third shot: Bellucci never gets into the rally, and the match becomes a string of service games decided in a tie-break, the ground where Sonego has just closed out qualifying against A. Vallejo.
