Djokovic in Paris: the draw is decided on return
Novak Djokovic arrives at the Rolex Paris Masters (2-8 November) as the No. 10 seed and with a specific problem. In his last two defeats, his return decided nothing. In Shanghai, Hubert Hurkacz held all ten of his service games, and in Basel Jan-Lennard Struff won 6-7, 7-5, 7-6 with 27 aces. The Paris draw puts servers of that type in his path in the first round, the quarter-final and the semi-final. His run depends on how many return games he can drag to deuce.
First round: Vacherot and the second serve
The draw hands him Valentin Vacherot straight away. Vacherot beat him 6-3, 6-4 in the 2025 Shanghai semi-final, when Djokovic was struggling physically. The Monegasque is 1.93 metres tall, builds his service games on the first serve and has already won on this court: a year ago he reached the quarter-finals. Djokovic has not played in Paris since his seventh title in 2023, and he has never taken the court at La Défense Arena.
Vacherot's profile shows in his win over Rafael Jodar in Basel, 7-6, 2-6, 7-6, with two sets out of three decided by tie-break. He takes matches there, where the return has few points to make an impact.
For Djokovic, the plan is a deep, blocked return down the middle on the first serve, to take away Vacherot's attacking forehand after the serve, and a step inside the court on the second. Against Struff, the match was decided in the third-set tie-break.
From the second round to the quarter-final: long rallies, then Zverev
The second round, against Luciano Darderi or a qualifier, is the most comfortable stretch of the path: opponents who look for baseline rallies rather than free points on serve, the type of match Djokovic won in Beijing.
In the round of 16, the projection points to Alex de Minaur, the No. 8 seed, who already has a bye. The two met in the Beijing final on 6 October: Djokovic won the first set 7-6 and the Australian retired in the second with an adductor problem. De Minaur defends with speed but does not hit many free points on serve, which is the kind of opponent against whom Djokovic's return makes an immediate difference. If the adductor is not right, the edge grows. Otherwise it is Andrey Rublev.
The quarter-final belongs to Alexander Zverev, the No. 1 seed and 2024 Paris champion. In Beijing Djokovic beat him 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, coming back from a set down. The same section also holds Hurkacz, who plays Lorenzo Musetti in the first round. A quarter-final against the Pole would bring back exactly the Shanghai problem.
Semi-final and final
In the semi-final, the most likely section belongs to Ben Shelton, the No. 3 seed, a lefty who closes out many points with his serve before the rally even starts. In the final, the favorite from the bottom half is Carlos Alcaraz, with Daniil Medvedev, Arthur Fils and Flavio Cobolli in the same half. Jannik Sinner is not in the draw, sidelined with a knee problem.
Court conditions could help the return. In 2025 the organizers slowed the surface after complaints about the previous edition, which was judged too fast, and Alexander Bublik called it the slowest indoor court he had ever seen. The 2026 speed has not been announced. If the court stays as it was last year, Djokovic's return games get longer even against big servers.
Against Vacherot, Djokovic is a slight favorite. Against de Minaur he is a clear favorite if the Australian plays hampered, and against Zverev it is a coin flip. The title remains unlikely with Alcaraz on the other side. The forecast can swing two ways. If he breaks serve in the first set against Vacherot and the court plays slow as in 2025, the semi-final becomes realistic. If the return stays what it was in Shanghai, with no break, he goes out in the first round. He is outside the top nine in the Race, the last qualifying spot for Turin with Sinner out, so he needs a long run to get there.
