Magic Picks, Paris 2026: the choices of Ace Cream and DnaDaTennis

The Rolex Paris Masters starts on Monday, November 2, without Sinner, who ended his season on October 6 because of his right knee, and without Auger-Aliassime, also stopped by his knee. The top seed is Zverev, who becomes world No. 1 on Monday. It is the second year at the Plenitude Arena, formerly the La Défense Arena, on a court that in 2025 was much slower than Bercy's. And it is the last tournament that counts for the Finals in Turin. Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton and Medvedev have already qualified, the other four spots are decided here and, with Sinner out, the last player in is the ninth in the Race.

For the team, Paris has its own math, because the draw has fifty-six players, like Monte-Carlo, not ninety-six like Shanghai. Sixteen seeds, and only the top eight skip the first round. Since points add up match by match, anyone who starts in the first round plays one more, and this time that also applies to two seeds: Jodar, No. 9, and Djokovic, No. 10, start on Monday or Tuesday like everyone else. In the lower tiers it pays to look for players with a winnable opener. Higher up it pays to look at the Race, because in Paris some players are fighting for Turin and others already have their ticket in their pocket.

We co-sign this analysis with our friends at DNA Da Tennis.

Loose cannon: Holger Rune (3 credits, sixth tier)

On October 18, 2025, in the Stockholm semifinal against Humbert, he ruptured his left Achilles tendon. Surgery, almost a year out, then a return in the Davis Cup in September and two opening-round defeats on tour, in Tokyo to Jacquet and in Shanghai to Altmaier. Last week in Basel came his first ATP wins in more than a year. First Halys, 6-4 6-7 7-6, 373 days after the injury. Then Hurkacz, the No. 10 seed, 3-6 6-3 7-6 after saving a match point. In the quarterfinals Vacherot stopped him in three sets.

And he knows this tournament well. He won it in 2022 at nineteen, beating Djokovic in the final 3-6 6-3 7-5. Today he enters the draw on a protected ranking, because after a year out his ranking would not be enough.

The draw did him no favors. In his opener there is Paul, the No. 12 seed, who has reached the quarterfinals in both Shanghai and Vienna in recent weeks. If he beats him he faces Merida or Blockx, then in the round of 16 one of Tiafoe, Fery and Halys, and in the quarterfinals Shelton. He could go out in the first round or repeat his 2022 week, and at three credits in the sixth tier the risk is minimal. He is the loose cannon of the draw.

Surface DNA: Ugo Humbert (7 credits, fifth tier)

In Paris Humbert plays at home. In 2024, when it was still played at Bercy, he reached the final, the first Frenchman since Tsonga in 2011, and in the round of 16 he beat Alcaraz 6-1 3-6 7-5. In the final he was stopped by Zverev, 6-2 6-2.

The last few weeks have been less bright. In Tokyo he beat Nakashima 6-3 6-2 and then lost to Lehecka in three sets. In Shanghai he went out in his first match to Gea. In Basel he lost in the first round to Djokovic, in three sets, calling for the physio for his back. He is currently world No. 38.

The draw gives him van de Zandschulp in his opener, then Nakashima, the No. 14 seed whom he already beat in Tokyo, or Berrettini. In the round of 16 he could meet Alcaraz again, in the same round as two years ago. The only thing to check is his back. If he is fine, he is worth every one of his seven fifth-tier credits.

The trap: Ben Shelton (28 credits, first tier)

He is going to Turin regardless: he is fourth in the Race and his place at the Finals is already secured. Paris matters less to him than to many others, and the last few weeks are no invitation to spend.

In the two tournaments he has played since losing the US Open final to Zverev, he has won two matches and lost two. In Shanghai, after Altmaier, he went out to Gea, 7-6 7-6 for the Frenchman. On Thursday night in Basel, in the second round, he lost 6-3 6-7 7-6 to Switzerland's Jérôme Kym, world No. 222. No player ranked that low had beaten a top-10 player in 2026.

On paper the draw is kind: a bye, then Norrie or Arnaldi, in the round of 16 Francisco Cerundolo, the No. 16 seed, Rinderknech or a qualifier, and in the quarterfinals one of Tiafoe, Paul, Rune and Fery. But twenty-eight credits in the first tier are the same as in Shanghai, where he won just one match, and for two credits more there is Medvedev. We are avoiding him, and we'll see him in Turin.

Prodigy: Rafael Jodar (27 credits, second tier)

Twenty years old, in his first season as a professional after leaving the University of Virginia at the end of 2025, and on Monday he enters the world's top ten for the first time. The Finals are within reach. After the Vienna semifinals he is tenth in the Race with 3,209 points, one fewer than de Minaur, who plays the Vienna final against Alcaraz today. With Sinner out, ninth place is worth Turin, and Paris is the last tournament to claim it.

In Shanghai he became the youngest finalist in the tournament's history, beating Ruud in the quarterfinals and Medvedev in the semifinals, 6-3 6-4. In the final he won the first set 6-1, then Davidovich Fokina turned the match around, 1-6 7-6 6-4. In Basel he beat Tabilo 6-4 6-2 and then lost to Vacherot, 7-6 2-6 7-6.

As the No. 9 seed he has no bye, and for the team that is an advantage: one more match to score points. In his opener he meets Tabilo again, beaten three times out of four, most recently on Tuesday in Basel. Then Ruud or a qualifier, in the round of 16 probably Cobolli, who retired in Vienna with a left thigh problem, and in the quarterfinals Medvedev or Davidovich Fokina. Twenty-seven credits, five more than in Shanghai: the price list has noticed him. But in Paris he is playing for Turin, and qualifying for the Finals in his first season would be an incredible feat.

Man of the moment: Daniil Medvedev (30 credits, first tier)

Since late September he has played five tournaments, won two and reached the semifinals in the other three. In Hangzhou he beat Rublev in the final with 23 aces. In Almaty, on October 25, he defended a title for the first time in his career, coming back from a set down against Basilashvili. In between came the disqualification in Beijing, in the semifinal against Djokovic, for a ball that hit a spectator, and the semifinals lost to Jodar in Shanghai and to Alcaraz in Vienna. The tally is eighteen wins and three losses.

He has been qualified for Turin since October 30, for the seventh time in eight years, so in Paris he can play to win. And he knows Paris: he won it in 2020, beating Zverev in the final, and the year after he lost the final to Djokovic. In 2025, in the first edition at the Défense Arena, he went out in the quarterfinals to Zverev after holding two match points.

The draw gives him a bye, then Buse or Bergs, in the round of 16 one of Davidovich Fokina, Kouamé, Shapovalov and Khachanov, and in the quarterfinals Cobolli or Jodar, who beat him in Shanghai. Thirty credits in the first tier, four more than in Shanghai, are the price of two titles in a month. The only doubt is the fuel tank: Paris is his third week in a row, after Almaty and Vienna. Here the aim is to win a Masters 1000.

Low budget with upside: Arthur Fery (3 credits, fifth tier)

Wimbledon was not a one-day exploit. In July, as a wild card ranked No. 114 in the world, he reached the semifinals: Dimitrov in five sets in the round of 16, Cobolli in the quarterfinals, then Zverev stopped him. In the Open era only Ivanisevic, in 2001, had reached the Wimbledon semifinals as a wild card.

In Vienna he showed the same level at times. He beat Fearnley, who retired at 5-1, and then Musetti 6-4 5-7 6-4. In the quarterfinals, though, Zverev let him win only two games. The Briton, born in France and raised in Wimbledon, is now world No. 35.

The draw gives him Halys, with the home crowd on his side, then Tiafoe, the No. 7 seed, and in the round of 16 one of Paul, Rune, Merida and Blockx. Three credits in the fifth tier, two fewer than in Shanghai, despite the Vienna quarterfinal. He is a pick worth trying.

Wise old man: Novak Djokovic (23 credits, third tier)

He has won Paris seven times, more than anyone else: 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2023. In 2024 and 2025 he was not there. This year he returns with a specific motive. He is eleventh in the Race with 2,900 points, 310 behind de Minaur, and to get to Turin he needs at least a semifinal, and even that may not be enough. He has said he would like to be at the Finals.

His form comes in fits and starts. On October 6 he won the title in Beijing, after beating Zverev in the quarterfinals. Then in Shanghai he lost his first match to Hurkacz, and in Basel, after beating Humbert, he was stopped by Struff, who had never beaten him before.

As the No. 10 seed he starts in the first round, with an awkward opener. There is Vacherot, who beat him in the Shanghai semifinal a year ago and arrives from the Basel final. Then Darderi or a qualifier, in the round of 16 de Minaur, his direct rival for Turin, and in the quarterfinals Zverev. Twenty-three credits in the third tier are one more than in Shanghai and seven fewer than at the US Open. For the player who has won this tournament more than anyone, with Turin at stake and one more match to play, it is an opportunity not to be missed.

Home favorite: Moïse Kouamé (1 credit, sixth tier)

Seventeen years old, born in Sarcelles, on the outskirts of Paris, and in the draw on a wild card. We had already seen him in Paris at Roland Garros, on clay and again as a wild card. He beat Cilic 7-6 6-2 6-1 and then Vallejo in five hours, in a fifth-set deciding tie-break, before losing in the third round to Tabilo, again in five. No man so young had reached the third round of a Slam since Nadal at Wimbledon 2003.

And he arrives on a roll. Today in Brest he plays Martin Damm in his first Challenger final, and with this tournament he enters the world's top 150. In March, in Miami, he won his first match at a Masters 1000, the youngest to do so since Nadal.

In the first round he will face an in-form Davidovich Fokina: the title in Chengdu, his first career Masters 1000 in Shanghai, ten straight wins in China. Since Shanghai, though, he has not played again, and he withdrew from Basel. If Kouamé gets through he faces Shapovalov or Khachanov, and in the round of 16 Medvedev. One credit in the sixth tier, the lowest price on the list: he starts in the first round and, with one match won, he has already done his job.

How the team fits together

The first thing to look at is where they ended up. In the top half Djokovic is alone in Zverev's quarter, while Shelton's quarter also holds Rune and Fery, who could meet in the round of 16. In the bottom half Jodar, Medvedev and Kouamé are in the same quarter: Kouamé could face Medvedev in the round of 16, Jodar could face him in the quarterfinals. Humbert is the only one in Alcaraz's quarter.

For us the team starts with Medvedev and Djokovic, who can only meet in the final: fifty-three credits between them. Between Medvedev and Shelton there is no choice to make, because two credits separate two titles in a month from two defeats in his last three matches. Jodar also fits alongside Medvedev, because they can only meet in the quarterfinals and he has one more match to play. Between Rune and Fery, who both cost three credits, Fery comes first: in his opener he faces Halys and not a seed. Humbert and Kouamé complete the team with eight credits between them.

Before confirming, two checks. The first is Cobolli: if the thigh does not hold up, Jodar's round of 16 opens up. The second is Sunday's finals, because de Minaur in Vienna shifts the Race for Jodar and Djokovic. The rest is up to a tournament that in 2022 went to a nineteen-year-old who came in unseeded.