Paris: the Top & Flop of every quarter
The Paris draw is out, and the defending champion is missing: Sinner, who won here last year, ended his season in early October because of his knee. It is the last Masters 1000 of the year and the last tournament that counts for the Finals in Turin. Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton and Medvedev have already qualified, and of the four remaining spots the last one currently belongs to De Minaur, ninth in the Race with one point on Jodar. The day before play starts here, four players in the draw are still on court for a title: De Minaur and Alcaraz in the Vienna final, Lehecka and Vacherot in the Basel final.
To help you find your way in FantaTennis, we have broken the draw down into its four quarters: for each one, a top pick you can't do without, a reliable semi-top, a flop to avoid and a low-budget pick from the fifth or sixth tier to bet a few credits on.
Everything is weighed on three things: how much they cost, who they play and how they arrive in Paris, given that two seeds, Cobolli and Fils, retired this week with physical problems.
FIRST QUARTER: ZVEREV / DE MINAUR
Top: Zverev A. (32 cr). He becomes world No. 1 on Monday. This year he won Roland Garros and the US Open, and in Paris he won in 2024 and reached the semifinals last year. After Shanghai he took ten days off, then in Vienna he reached the semifinals and lost to De Minaur in a third-set tie-break. The trickiest step is his opener. After the bye he faces Musetti, just crowned in Lyon and 3-2 up in their head-to-head, although Zverev won the most recent meeting, indoors in Vienna a year ago, 6-4 7-5. Or Hurkacz, who beat him in January at the United Cup. In the third round it is one of Tsitsipas, Tien, Navone and Van Assche. Thirty-two credits, two fewer than Alcaraz.
Semi-top: De Minaur A. (25 cr). He has not lost indoors yet this year: ten matches, ten wins, the latest on Saturday against Zverev in the Vienna semifinal, 6-4 1-6 7-6(4). Today he plays the final against Alcaraz, whom he has never beaten in six meetings, but in Paris he skips the first round. In the second he faces Rublev, who has lost his last four matches, or Etcheverry, who has not won a match since the US Open round of 16. In the third round it is one of Djokovic, who has beaten him four times out of five, Vacherot, Darderi and a qualifier. He has reached the quarterfinals here in each of the last three years. The only physical doubt is the adductor, which forced him to retire in the Beijing final in early October. Twenty-five credits, seven fewer than Zverev, whom he could meet again in the quarterfinals.
Flop to avoid: Tien L. (11 cr). A year ago the Asian swing launched him; this year it did not. In Beijing he went out in his opener to Hurkacz, in Shanghai in the third round to Ruud, in straight sets, and in Vienna he won one match before taking just six games off De Minaur. The price list has noticed: in Shanghai he cost 16 credits, here 11. As the No. 15 seed he has no bye, and in his opener he faces Tsitsipas, a semifinalist here in 2022 and 2023. If he gets through, after one of Navone and Van Assche comes Zverev. Last year in Paris he lost in the second round to Rublev. Eleven credits is a lot for a path that risks ending in the first match.
Low budget: Tsitsipas S. (7 cr, Tier 5). He reached the semifinals here in 2022 and 2023, and this autumn he has found consistency again: the round of 16 at the US Open and in Shanghai, where he knocked out Fritz, then the semifinals in Almaty. In his opener he faces Tien, the quarter's flop, who did beat him in Geneva this year, on clay. In the second round it is one of Navone, who is far less effective on hard courts than on clay, and Van Assche. The doubt is his right shoulder, which made him skip Basel. Low-budget alternative: Van Assche (2 cr), who plays at home and has won two indoor Challengers this year. In his opener he faces none other than Navone.
SECOND QUARTER: SHELTON / TIAFOE
Top: Paul T. (18 cr). He is the in-form player of the quarter: quarterfinals in Shanghai, semifinals in Lyon and quarterfinals in Vienna, where he only gave way to Alcaraz, 6-4 7-6. Over the last three weeks he has won seven matches out of ten. And Paris is the last tournament for Turin: he is thirteenth in the Race and needs at least the final. His opener is delicate, against Rune, champion here in 2022, who beat Halys and Hurkacz in Basel. If he gets through he faces Merida, who has not won indoors this year, or Blockx, out since 9 October with a sprained ankle. In the third round it is one of Tiafoe, whom he has beaten four times out of five on tour, Halys and Fery. Eighteen credits, ten fewer than Shelton.
Semi-top: Cerundolo F. (11 cr). He has reached the round of 16 here in each of the last three years. This autumn he made the quarterfinals in Beijing and the semifinals in Brussels, lost to Griekspoor in a third-set tie-break; in Vienna, though, he went out straight away to Norrie. In his opener he faces Rinderknech, who has beaten him in both their meetings but missed Beijing and Shanghai with an abdominal problem and lost straight away on his return in Basel. Then a qualifier, and in the round of 16 probably Shelton, the quarter's flop. Eleven credits for two playable matches.
Flop to avoid: Shelton B. (28 cr). He reached the US Open final and already has his place in Turin. Since New York, Davis Cup included, he has won two matches and lost four. On Thursday in Basel, as the top seed, he lost to Kym, a Swiss wild card ranked No. 222 in the world. He had skipped Tokyo, explaining that the US Open and the Davis Cup had taken a physical toll. On paper the draw is kind: Norrie or Arnaldi, then Cerundolo, Rinderknech or a qualifier. But twenty-eight credits, two fewer than Medvedev, are too many for someone who has not won two matches in a row since the US Open.
Low budget: Fery A. (3 cr, Tier 5). This summer he reached the Wimbledon semifinals as a wild card, knocking out Cobolli in the quarterfinals. A few days ago in Vienna he beat Musetti, coming back from 2-4 in the third set, before stopping against Zverev. In his opener he faces Halys, who plays at home but has never won a main-draw match in Paris. In the second round it is Tiafoe, who has won two matches out of five since the US Open semifinal. Three credits for the world No. 35. Low-budget alternative: Rune (3 cr), champion here in 2022, who in Basel won his first tour matches since his comeback. In his opener, though, he faces Paul, our top pick in the quarter: it's one or the other.
THIRD QUARTER: COBOLLI / MEDVEDEV
Top: Medvedev D. (30 cr). Since late September he has played five tournaments and has not gone out before the semifinals in any of them: the title in Hangzhou, a Beijing semifinal ended by his disqualification, a Shanghai semifinal, the title in Almaty and a semifinal on Saturday in Vienna, lost to Alcaraz. He won here in 2020, and last year he went out in the quarterfinals to Zverev in a third-set tie-break. After the bye he faces Buse, who has lost his last four tour matches, or Bergs. In the third round it is one of Davidovich Fokina, the Shanghai champion who has not played since and has beaten him once in seven meetings, Kouamé, Shapovalov and Khachanov. The only doubt is his energy, after five straight tournaments and with his ticket for Turin already in his pocket. Thirty credits, four fewer than Alcaraz.
Semi-top: Jodar R. (27 cr). In Shanghai he reached the final, beating Medvedev 6-3 6-4 in the semifinal, and lost it to Davidovich Fokina in the third set. He is tenth in the Race, one point behind De Minaur: in Paris he is playing for the Finals in his first season on tour. In his opener he meets Tabilo again, beaten 6-4 6-2 this week in Basel, then one of Ruud, knocked out in the Shanghai quarterfinals, and a qualifier. In the third round it is Cobolli, if the thigh holds up, or one of Struff and Gea. The warning is that he alternates huge tournaments with quick exits: in Tokyo he lost in his opener, in Basel in the second round to Vacherot, in a third-set tie-break. Twenty-seven credits, three fewer than Medvedev, with one more match to play.
Flop to avoid: Cobolli F. (24 cr). In Lyon he had started winning again, up to the semifinal he lost to Musetti after holding four match points. In Vienna he called the doctor as early as the first round, against Dimitrov, and in the round of 16 he retired at 2-5 against Berrettini with a left thigh problem. Scans found a minor muscle strain, and he said he would do "everything possible" to play. After the bye he faces Struff, who has beaten him twice in two meetings and comes off a final in Brussels and a semifinal in Basel, or Gea, who knocked out Shelton in Shanghai. Twenty-four credits is a lot for someone who played with his thigh strapped in Vienna.
Low budget: Gea A. (5 cr, Tier 6). In Shanghai, in his first Masters 1000 main draw, he beat Humbert, Shelton and Mensik before retiring in the quarterfinals with psoas pain. He has not played since: he skipped Lyon to arrive rested in Paris, where he plays at home on a wild card. In his opener he faces Struff, who played nine matches in two weeks between Brussels and Basel and lost Saturday's semifinal after holding a match point. In the second round it is Cobolli, the quarter's flop. Five credits, with the psoas to keep an eye on. Low-budget alternative: Bergs (6 cr), who beat Alcaraz in Shanghai. In his opener he faces Buse, whom he beat 6-0 6-3 three weeks ago, then Medvedev.
FOURTH QUARTER: FILS / ALCARAZ
Top: Alcaraz C. (34 cr). In early October he won Tokyo, then in Shanghai he stumbled in the third round against Bergs. In Vienna he beat Paul and Medvedev by the same score, 6-4 7-6, and today he plays the final against De Minaur, whom he has beaten in all six of their meetings. After the bye he faces Michelsen or Lehecka, beaten in the Tokyo final and today in a final himself in Basel. In the third round it is one of Humbert, Nakashima, Berrettini and van de Zandschulp. The blemish is Paris: he has never gone past the quarterfinals, and in 2023 and last year, against Norrie, he lost his first match. Thirty-four credits, the highest price on the list, in a quarter where the next-highest seed after him, Fils, arrives banged up.
Semi-top: Fritz T. (20 cr). In Shanghai we had him among the flops. Since then he has changed gear: a final in Lyon, lost to Musetti, and a semifinal in Basel, lost to Vacherot, both indoors. The draw helps him. In his opener there is a qualifier, then another qualifier or Droguet, a wild card who won two Challengers in September but lost in the first round in Lyon. In the third round it is Fils, who retired against him on Friday in Basel, or Jacquet. He is twelfth in the Race, and Paris is his last chance for Turin. Twenty credits, five fewer than Fils.
Flop to avoid: Fils A. (25 cr). On Friday in Basel he retired in the quarterfinals against Fritz, trailing 2-6 0-2, with a back problem and leg pain that would not go away. He said he felt confident about Paris, but first he had to have tests. He plays at home, won Cincinnati in August and is seventh in the Race, so he has every reason to be there. After the bye he faces Jacquet, another Frenchman, a semifinalist in Hangzhou and quarterfinalist in Tokyo, or a qualifier. In the third round he could meet Fritz again. Twenty-five credits, five more than Fritz, for someone who could not finish a match three days before the start.
Low budget: Humbert U. (7 cr, Tier 5). In 2024, when the tournament was still played at Bercy, he reached the final, beating Alcaraz along the way. The draw is on his side. In his opener he faces van de Zandschulp, who has never beaten him. In the second round it is Nakashima, who has never beaten him on tour either and has never won a match in Paris, or Berrettini, who has never won one here. The doubt is his back: after the problem that made him miss the US Open he has lost four of his last five matches, the latest in Basel to Djokovic in three sets, calling for the physio. Low-budget alternative: Jacquet (3 cr), a wild card, semifinalist in Hangzhou and quarterfinalist in Tokyo. In his opener he faces a qualifier, then Fils, the quarter's flop.
Four quarters, four maps to find your way. In Paris, on top of the draw, the Race weighs: Cobolli, Fils, Tiafoe, De Minaur and Jodar are in contention for the last four spots in Turin, with Djokovic, Fritz, Paul and Lehecka chasing, while Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton and Medvedev already have their ticket. Before you lock in your team, check the latest news on Cobolli and Fils: both are in the draw, but both come off a retirement.
