Jodar in Paris: a tournament that counts for Turin
Rafael Jodar arrives at the Paris Masters 1000 as the ninth seed and ninth in the Race. With Sinner out for the rest of the season, that position is worth the last qualifying spot for Turin. The draw has put almost only opponents in front of him that he has already faced at least once since August. His weapon is the return, and in the first two rounds it should be enough. The limit shows when the set reaches a tie-break: that is where he lost the heaviest matches of the last three months.
Tabilo and Ruud, two opponents already read
In the first round it is Alejandro Tabilo: it will be their fifth meeting of the season. The Chilean won only the first one, at Indian Wells. Then Jodar beat him at Washington, at Cincinnati and on Tuesday in Basel, 6-4, 6-2.
In the second round the expected opponent is Casper Ruud, and the reference point is the Shanghai quarterfinal. Ruud won the first set 6-4, then Jodar broke his serve five times across the second and third sets and closed it out 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. In Shanghai it was his fourth consecutive comeback from a set down.
The mechanism is return position. In Montreal, against Jiri Lehecka, Jodar returned the first serve standing between zero and two meters behind the baseline, where most players stand between two and four. The TennisViz data reported by Punto de Break give him 50% of first-serve returns taken close to the opponent's baseline in that match, against his usual 31%. It takes him a few games to find his range, but from then on the opponent is serving under pressure on every second serve.
The third round depends on Cobolli's condition
Flavio Cobolli, the fifth seed, has a first-round bye. In August, at Cincinnati, he beat Jodar in a comeback, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3.
On Thursday Cobolli retired in Vienna against Berrettini with a muscle problem in his left thigh, and on social media he wrote that he expects to be in Paris. His indoor game rests on defense and one extra ball in the neutral rally, so on his legs. A healthy Cobolli makes the third round a coin flip. With the muscle limiting him, Jodar's deep return forces him to defend with exactly the movement he lacks.
Quarterfinal and semifinal: the tie-break problem
In the quarterfinal he faces Daniil Medvedev or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Jodar played both of them in Shanghai. Medvedev lost the semifinal 6-3, 6-4 and admitted that Jodar had been better than him on the return. Davidovich won the final 1-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 after a first set dominated by Jodar.
That final fits a pattern. Fritz beat him in the Washington final 7-6(2), 6-4, Cobolli at Cincinnati by way of the 7-6(3) set, Davidovich in Shanghai with the second-set tie-break. On Thursday in Basel Valentin Vacherot eliminated him 7-6, 2-6, 7-6, with 13 aces to 10. The return is his weapon, but at 6-6 it counts for little and the tie-break is decided on serve.
The surface can help him. In 2025, the first year at the Défense Arena, TennisTV's speed index recorded a slower court than Bercy 2024. If the court plays like last year, more returns come into play and service games last longer.
In the semifinal comes the quarter of Carlos Alcaraz, with Arthur Fils and Taylor Fritz. Jodar has beaten Fils twice, at Washington and in the Montreal quarterfinal. He lost the Washington final to Fritz.
Jodar is a clear favorite over Tabilo and a favorite over Ruud. The third round is a coin flip if Cobolli is healthy and a clear edge if he is not. In the quarterfinal he has a slight edge over Medvedev and is even with Davidovich; in the semifinal against Alcaraz he starts as the underdog. The title is possible, but the realistic target is the quarterfinal, and for the Race that may be enough: Novak Djokovic and Alex de Minaur, also in the race for Turin, are in the top half and would meet in the third round. The forecast breaks down if the court plays faster than in 2025, or if Jodar keeps dropping first sets: against more solid opponents the comeback is not guaranteed.
