Zverev in Paris: the No. 1 in action
Alexander Zverev arrives at the Rolex Paris Masters as the No. 1 seed, having won Roland Garros and the US Open in 2026. His limit this year lies in the format. Before the Vienna semifinal, both of his titles this season are Slams, none at a best-of-three event, and between Beijing and Shanghai he lost two matches in which he had won the first set. The Paris draw gives him a manageable path to the semifinals. The title depends on how he holds up in second sets.
The court and the 2025 precedent
In 2025 the tournament moved from Bercy to the Paris La Défense Arena and the court slowed down sharply: the Court Pace Index dropped by more than ten points, to 35.1. Fewer free points on serve, longer rallies.
On that court Zverev reached the semifinals and lost 6-0, 6-1 to Sinner in 62 minutes, the night after saving two match points against Medvedev in the quarterfinals. On a slow court, the physical cost of one round is paid in the next.
The serve remains the foundation of his indoor tennis. On Thursday in Vienna, against Tallon Griekspoor, he won 35 of 39 first-serve points, with 11 aces and no break points conceded. If the Paris 2026 court plays like 2025, those numbers will come down.
Second round and last 16: the danger lies in the other man's serve
After the bye, Zverev meets the winner of Lorenzo Musetti and Hubert Hurkacz. The awkward name is Hurkacz. In January, at the United Cup, Hurkacz beat Zverev 6-3, 6-4 with 21 aces, on his return from knee surgery. Against a server like that, over two sets, a single break decides the match. The slow court helps Zverev return deeper and steer the rally into the backhand diagonal, his most reliable shot from the baseline.
Musetti poses the opposite problem: one-handed backhand, slice, changes of pace, a lighter serve. Zverev has to shorten the rallies with his first serve and attack the short slice, without getting dragged into slow build-up play.
In the last 16 the projection points to Learner Tien, the No. 15 seed, who however opens against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tien is left-handed: he forces Zverev to recalibrate his serve directions, because the wide first serve from the left side lands on the opponent's forehand.
The quarterfinal: de Minaur or Djokovic
In the other half of the quarter the highest seed is Alex de Minaur, the No. 8. In Shanghai Zverev beat him 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinals without dropping serve: de Minaur converted none of his five break points. Against a player who lives on taking the ball early, Zverev's heavy, deep ball takes away the time to step into the court.
The other candidate is Novak Djokovic, the No. 10 seed and without a bye, who opens against Valentin Vacherot. In Beijing Djokovic came from behind to beat Zverev 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. Two weeks later, in the Shanghai semifinal, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina beat him 5-7, 6-4, 6-3. The pattern is identical: first set to Zverev, match turned in the second. At a Slam that dip gets absorbed over five sets. At a Masters 1000 it ends the tournament.
Semifinal and final
In the semifinal the projection says Ben Shelton, the No. 3 seed, whom Zverev beat in the US Open final. Shelton's quarter also includes Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul and Holger Rune: three players who win with serve and first strike, exactly the weapons the 2025 court had cut down to size. From the other half the favorite is Carlos Alcaraz, the No. 2 seed, who last year said the new La Défense court was "much slower than last year," with a speed where "we can see tennis, not only serve."
Zverev starts as favorite to reach the semifinals, with a slight edge over Djokovic in his quarter and a wider margin over the others. In a potential final against Alcaraz he starts as the underdog: in 2026 he has yet to beat either Sinner or Djokovic. The prediction falls apart in two cases. If the 2026 court turns out faster than 2025, Zverev's serve will again count for more than his second sets, and the title becomes realistic. If instead Vienna takes too much out of him, the second round against Hurkacz is the nearest trap.
