The Italians in Shanghai: why the slow hard court helps them
Shanghai is no longer the fastest Masters 1000 on the calendar. The Court Pace Index has dropped from 40.8 in 2024 to 32.9 in 2025, and the court now produces high bounces and long rallies. A year ago, Alex de Minaur called it the slowest conditions he had ever played. With Jannik Sinner out, the Italian contingent arrives with five players in the main draw and two more still fighting through qualifying, and the surface reshuffles the hierarchy: players who live off ball weight and endurance start with an edge over those who live off the first strike.
A court that takes away the free points
On a court like this, the serve alone no longer closes the point. The first serve is good for taking the center of the court, then the point has to be built over two or three more shots.
The hardest hit is Matteo Berrettini. As an unseeded player, his draw opens softly, Aleksandar Kovacevic in the first round, but the second round brings 16th seed Brandon Nakashima, who hits deep and gives away no rhythm. The only previous meeting, at the 2022 Australian Open, went to Berrettini in four sets on a far quicker court than this one. In Tokyo he beat Davidovich Fokina in his opener and then lost to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. The longer the rally goes, the less his inside-out forehand finds the short ball it depends on.
Much the same story for Lorenzo Musetti, with one extra complication. The fractured ring finger on his right hand, picked up in training, forced him out of Tokyo, and it's the hand that carries his one-handed backhand on its own. Even fully recovered, in the third round he runs into Novak Djokovic, against whom the head-to-head reads 10-1, with no wins on hard courts. On a court that rewards repeated shot-making, the one-handed backhand pays a price twice over: on the return against high balls, and in defending the same corner for fifteen shots in a row.
Cobolli, a big name for the first time
Flavio Cobolli comes in as sixth seed, world number 7, fifth in the Race to Turin with more than a thousand points to spare over the first player outside the cut. With Sinner out, he's the leading Italian, and the draw asks plenty of him right away: a bye, then Adrian Mannarino or a qualifier, 26th seed Karen Khachanov in the third round, and de Minaur or Andrey Rublev in the fourth.
The margin on paper is real; the execution less so. In Beijing he lost his opener to Roman Safiullin 6-3 6-2. Shanghai asks him to hold serve in games where the first serve isn't enough and points are won from the fifth shot onward. The Acapulco title, his first on hard courts, shows the game plan exists.
Darderi and Arnaldi in the most readable section
Luciano Darderi has won all five of his titles on clay, and on hard courts his career win rate in ATP main draws sits below 35%. But 2026 has moved that line: in Montreal came his first quarterfinal at a hard-court 1000, and he became the first player on tour to reach ten quarterfinals in a season. In Tokyo he opened by beating Casper Ruud 7-6 6-3. A slow, humid hard court with a high bounce is the closest thing to clay the calendar produces, and that's where his heavy forehand becomes transferable.
In the second round, the danger is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who won the only previous meeting at Halle 2025 in a third set, on grass, meaning the opposite conditions. In the third round, the 18th seed would face Taylor Fritz or Matteo Arnaldi, and here the draw is deceptive: Arnaldi first has to get past Fritz in the second round, but the head-to-head is 1-1, with the Italian's win in Acapulco in 2024 and the American's revenge in Washington in 2025, 6-3 6-4. An all-Italian clash in the third round is a real possibility.
The highest expectations rest on Cobolli, whose seeding hands him two manageable rounds. The most underrated is Darderi, whose game fits this court better than his hard-court record suggests. Berrettini and Musetti both start behind their respective odds, the first because of conditions, the second because of his finger. In qualifying, Mattia Bellucci and Federico Cinà are one win away from the main draw, while Lorenzo Sonego, the top seed, has already gone out against Tunisia's Aziz Dougaz.
The one thing that could flip this script is the weather. With dry air and lower temperatures, the Court Pace Index climbs back up, the ball stays low, and the picture reverses: Berrettini goes back to closing points in two shots and Darderi finds himself chasing the game. The number to watch in the early rounds is how many points the Italians win in rallies longer than five shots.
