Arnaldi vs Tomic in Shanghai: legs against the slice

Matteo Arnaldi is a clear favorite against Bernard Tomic in the first round of Shanghai. The reason is on court: on a medium-fast hard court, a player who covers the court like Arnaldi can lengthen the rallies and take away Tomic's preferred ball, the flat one hit from a standstill. The Australian has only one route: quick service games and sets pushed to the tie-break, the spot where Arnaldi has already slipped too often this year.

Tomic's serve and the slice that stays low

Tomic comes through qualifying, at 33, in his first Masters 1000 since 2019. He closed out qualifying by beating Timofey Skatov 7-5, 6-4.

His match blueprint showed at Los Cabos in late July, when he beat Karen Khachanov 6-2, 6-4. Tomic absorbs the pace, changes height and rhythm, and with his backhand slice makes the ball bounce below the knee. A hard hitter like Khachanov needs a high ball to drive through; against the low slice he has to build every shot from below the net, and he misses.

The proof came in the next round. In the quarterfinal against Cameron Norrie, a lefty who sends everything back without giving away pace or errors, Tomic won the first game and then lost the next twelve. When the opponent accepts the slow exchange and stretches it, Tomic has no second plan.

Arnaldi can play the same match as Norrie with faster feet. He gets to the slice early, and on the forehand side he can answer with a heavy topspin ball that pulls Tomic sideways, the movement that costs the Australian the most.

Arnaldi's weak spot: set points

Tomic's weapon on the return is the blocked, early-taken shot, which moves the opponent around without needing pace of his own. If Arnaldi doesn't land the first serve, the second becomes the target.

The Ligurian's best-documented problem is closing out sets. In the US Open first round, lost in four sets to James Duckworth, Arnaldi had six set points in the fourth-set tie-break and converted none. On Saturday in Tokyo he had four set points in the first-set tie-break against Carlos Alcaraz, lost it 7-6, and the second set ended 6-1.

Against Alcaraz it can happen. In New York and in Tokyo the script was the same: Arnaldi built the set well and closed it badly. In the summer he also played through problems with both feet, first the right and then the left.

In the most likely scenario Arnaldi wins in two sets: over three sets and on this hard court he can make Tomic hit more shots on the move than the Australian can sustain. If the humidity that troubled more than one player in 2025 returns, the more athletic player's edge grows. The prediction breaks down if Tomic holds serve without facing break points in the first set and takes it to a tie-break: there Arnaldi's second serve and his trouble closing sets come into play, and the match opens up. The winner meets Taylor Fritz, the number 11 seed.