Italians in Paris: who has the best chance of advancing
The Rolex Paris Masters (November 2-8) has seven Italians in the draw and only one seed, Flavio Cobolli, No. 5. The matches that weigh most in the first two rounds follow the same pattern: on one side a player who builds his games on the first serve, on the other one who has to return. In 2025 the organizers deliberately slowed down the court in the La Défense arena. If the speed stays the same, the return matters more than the serve, and the draw opens up for Lorenzo Musetti and Cobolli. The most exposed is Matteo Berrettini.
Musetti vs. Hurkacz: the low ball against the big serve
Musetti arrives off two full weeks. In Lyon he won the first indoor title of his career, saving four match points against Cobolli in the semifinal and beating Taylor Fritz 6-3, 6-4 in the final. In Vienna he got past Frances Tiafoe. He is not a seed, and the draw handed him Hubert Hurkacz right away.
The Pole beat Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 in Shanghai without conceding a break. In Basel he lost in the second round to Holger Rune, 7-6 in the third. The head-to-head stands at 3-2 for Musetti, whose latest win came in Madrid in April, 6-4, 7-6.
The most logical plan for the Italian has two parts. A blocked, deep return up the middle on the first serve, to take Hurkacz's forehand away after the serve. Then the low slice backhand, which forces a player this tall to bend down and rebuild the point from a standstill. The slower the court, the more time Musetti has to get to the return. The winner meets Alexander Zverev, the No. 1 seed, in the second round.
Cobolli: the draw is there, the body is the question
Cobolli is in the race for Turin, and Paris is the last tournament that counts toward qualification. He has a bye, and in the second round he faces the winner of the first-round match between Jan-Lennard Struff and wild card Arthur Gea.
For a returner in his first match, the delicate point is the opponent's first serve.
Cobolli has to get there with his legs and shorten his backswing. Otherwise he returns from far behind the baseline and gives up the first comfortable shot.
That is exactly where the doubt lies. On October 29 in Vienna, Cobolli retired trailing 2-5 in the derby with Berrettini because of a muscle problem. His name is in the Paris draw; whether his body holds up remains to be seen in match play.
In the round of 16 the projection says Rafael Jodar or Casper Ruud. In the quarterfinals waits Daniil Medvedev.
Berrettini, Darderi, Arnaldi and the qualifiers' derby
Berrettini runs into Brandon Nakashima again, a seed, who beat him in Shanghai on October 9, 7-6, 7-5. That match is his problem in miniature: 12 aces to 5 for Berrettini, yet both won 25% of return points. The extra aces did not buy him a break of advantage, and the match was decided on a handful of points. In Vienna he reached the quarterfinals, stopped by de Minaur. On a slow court the free points dry up and the rally moves to his backhand, the shot Nakashima goes after.
Luciano Darderi opens against qualifier Rinky Hijikata. In Vienna he showed both extremes: 7-5, 6-2 over Matteo Arnaldi, then run over 6-1, 6-1 by Tommy Paul in the round of 16. In the second round it is Djokovic or Valentin Vacherot.
Arnaldi opens against Cameron Norrie. He beat him in their only meeting, at the 2023 US Open, but this fall tells a different story: first-round losses in Lyon to Musetti and in Vienna to Darderi. Norrie is a lefty, and in Paris a year ago he beat Carlos Alcaraz. The winner gets Ben Shelton.
The qualifiers' derby between Lorenzo Sonego and Mattia Bellucci guarantees an Italian in the second round. They met in April in Cagliari, on clay, and Bellucci won 6-4, 1-6, 7-5. The lefty takes his forehand crosscourt to Sonego's backhand; Sonego has to serve to Bellucci's backhand and get to the net early.
Cobolli is the Italian with the best chance of reaching the quarterfinals, on one condition: his body has to hold up to the movement on the return. If in the second round we see him returning two meters behind the baseline, the limit is physical and the tournament gets shorter. Musetti is a slight favorite against Hurkacz and an underdog against Zverev. Berrettini-Nakashima is a coin flip, Darderi starts the second round as an underdog, and Arnaldi starts a step behind Norrie. The forecast falls apart if the 2026 court is faster than the 2025 one: in that case Hurkacz and Berrettini win back the first-serve advantage and the pattern flips.
